Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly passes through the area today, but stalls out
just south of the region tonight. This will allow an active pattern
to continue this weekend as the front lifts back north on Saturday,
then another cold front slides through the area on Sunday. Cool and
dry high pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday: A couple of strong storms continue to
affect Elbert County, GA, and Union County, NC, but should shift
south and east of the FA within the next hour or so. Behind that,
mainly just some scattered showers across the southeast quarter
of the FA this morning. Cannot rule out additional tstms, as
MUCAPE is still 500-1000 J/kg on the SPC mesoanaylsis page. But
the better moisture has shifted south, and forcing should be on
the downward trend.

Otherwise, a frontal boundary should push out of the region by 18z
today as sfc high builds in to the NW and we enter a post-frontal
environment by the very end of the forecast period. Drier weather
will prevail, with highs in the low 80s in most locations outside
the mountains and 70s in the higher elevations. One factor that
can play a role is how fast the cold front exits the region and
allows for the clouds to scour out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday: Due to active weather, didn't have time
to make much changes to the short term forecast. Unfortunately,
active weather pattern will continue, as another shortwave trough
carves out and helps shift the longwave trough axis east. A warm
front will lift north across the area on Saturday, likely bringing
a round of showers and possibly some embedded tstms. Fortunately,
any storms that develop should be elevated and the severe threat
looks low. Temps will be not as warm as Friday, thanks in part
due to mostly cloudy skies.

The warm front should lift north of the area by early Sunday,
and there is little indication of any wedge. Guidance is in good
agreement on a cold front crossing the area during the day Sunday,
and could line up well with peak heating. There is definitely
a concern for another round of organized severe tstms with this
front. Bulk shear will be strong thanks to an intense LLJ. Can't
rule out a quasi-linear and/or supercell storm mode. So in light
of that, the new SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook has the entire FA
in a Slight Risk. Will plan to update the threat mention in the
HWO. Otherwise, Sunday will be warm, and even feel a little humid,
if dewpts can get into the 60s. Highs in the mid 70s to 80 east
of the mountains. Temps drop back to near-normal Sunday night in
the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12 AM EDT Friday: Good agreement amongst global models
provides above normal confidence in the extended period. The
progressive pattern will continue into next week. A cool
continental air mass will ride in on the tail of Sunday's cold
front, but full insolation and downslope flow off the southern
Appalachians will support highs still reaching the 70s for many on
Monday. Breezy but sub-advisory west/northwest winds should
gradually weaken late in the day. A transient 1030 mb high will
maintain the dry air mass and large diurnal swing in temperatures
into Tuesday. By Wednesday, return flow behind the high will support
increasing low level moisture off the Atlantic basin for at least
increasing clouds for southern areas if not supporting some shower
activity.

Probably the biggest story is the emergence of a full latitude
trough and associated frontal system to impact the area late in the
work week. It is too early for the details but this has the
potential to be a vigorous cold front with widespread precipitation.
Temperatures will likely fall below normal late next week in
response to the Canadian air mass settling into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: convection has shifted southeast of all
the TAF sites in time for the 12z TAFs. There will be isolated
to scattered showers continuing across mainly the Upstate and
KCLT sites thru about 13-15z. Plenty of moisture and calming
winds are causing patchy fog and very low stratus, and there's
lots of MVFR cigs around. But dry air should bring all sites to
VFR by late morning. SW winds expected today, with low-end gusts
during the midday to late aftn hours. KAVL is the exception as
winds turn to NW. Winds become lght this evening, and shift to
west or west-northwest.

Outlook: Another system may bring showers Saturday with
thunderstorms possible by Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   72%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
511 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ029-NCZ057-071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-270915-
Elbert-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
511 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the lower Piedmont of
the Upstate and northeast Georgia, as well as the southern NC
Piedmont through the morning hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable
of cloud-to-ground lightning, strong gusty winds, and torrential
rainfall. A few storms could briefly become severe with large hail
and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Sunday. Some of these
storms may become severe, producing damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-270915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-
511 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Sunday. Some of these
storms may become severe, producing damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
455 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

SCZ007-012-013-019-260930-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
455 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND NORTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 AM EDT...

At 455 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles west of Laurens
to 6 miles northeast of Abbeville, and moving east at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Laurens, Clinton, Ware Shoals, Joanna, Gray Court, Cross
Hill, Cokesbury, Waterloo and Hodges.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Greenwood is in the path of these storms. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8225 3427 8230 3434 8233 3441 8225
      3448 8232 3454 8224 3459 8224 3474 8171
      3453 8164 3437 8178 3430 8190 3424 8191
      3420 8194 3416 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 254DEG 52KT 3449 8227 3424 8230

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

SCZ013-014-261000-
Union SC-Chester SC-
520 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM EDT...

At 519 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Union, or near Whitmire, moving east at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Carlisle, Richburg, Chester State
Park, Rose Hill State Park, Blackstock, Fishing Creek Reservoir and
Leeds.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8156 3448 8155 3454 8165 3466 8169
      3482 8090 3479 8088 3471 8086 3464 8090
      3455 8087 3455 8097 3457 8142 3450 8142
      3449 8144 3449 8149 3445 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 254DEG 60KT 3454 8162

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT FRI MAR 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW NUBERG            34.26N 82.92W
03/26/2021                   HART               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIVE CHICKEN HOUSES COLLAPSED. A FEW TREE LIMBS BLOWN
            DOWN AS WELL.

&&

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ029-SCZ011-261100-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-
610 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

At 609 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Elberton, or 9 miles southeast of Carlton, moving east
at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Bobby Brown State Park, Lake Strom
Thurmond, Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Russell, Broad River
Campground, Fortsonia and Rice Town.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Russell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294
      3403 8294 3404 8296 3407 8293 3422 8236
      3406 8233 3406 8244 3408 8248 3407 8253
      3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1009Z 254DEG 49KT 3396 8291

MOORE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>