Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pass through the area today, but stalls out just
south of the region tonight. This will allow an active pattern to
continue this weekend as the front lifts back north on Saturday,
then another cold front slides through the area on Sunday. Cool and
dry high pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday: Based on radar trends and with coordination
with SPC and FFC/CAE offices, a Tornado Watch has been issued
for the Upper Savannah Valley counties (except Rabun/Habersham,
which are now behind the convection). The watch is in effect till
7 AM EDT this morning. Despite a cold pool holding on, convection
has shown some tight rotation coming off the GA Mountains. There
is more convection blossoming across the Atlanta metro area,
and will arrive over the next couple of hours. The cold pool
may erode and allow this convection to survive further north
and east. Meanwhile, continued heavy rain from Habersham County
NE along the escarpment is causing flash flooding concerns. No
changes were made to the Flash Flood Watch, which is in effect till
8 AM EDT. Guidance is in good agreement that a fairly solid band
of showers and embedded tstms will slowly cross the FA from west
to east thru mid-morning. Overall, expect a lack of instability
better antecedent conditions to limit the flood and tornado threat
from the I-26 corridor east. But conditions will be watched closely.

Otherwise, a frontal boundary should push out of the region by 18z
today as sfc high builds in to the NW and we enter a post-frontal
environment by the very end of the forecast period. Drier weather
will prevail, with highs in the low 80s in most locations outside
the mountains and 70s in the higher elevations. One factor that
can play a role is how fast the cold front exits the region and
allows for the clouds to scour out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday: Due to active weather, didn't have time
to make much changes to the short term forecast. Unfortunately,
active weather pattern will continue, as another shortwave trough
carves out and helps shift the longwave trough axis east. A warm
front will lift north across the area on Saturday, likely bringing
a round of showers and possibly some embedded tstms. Fortunately,
any storms that develop should be elevated and the severe threat
looks low. Temps will be not as warm as Friday, thanks in part
due to mostly cloudy skies.

The warm front should lift north of the area by early Sunday,
and there is little indication of any wedge. Guidance is in good
agreement on a cold front crossing the area during the day Sunday,
and could line up well with peak heating. There is definitely
a concern for another round of organized severe tstms with this
front. Bulk shear will be strong thanks to an intense LLJ. Can't
rule out a quasi-linear and/or supercell storm mode. So in light
of that, the new SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook has the entire FA
in a Slight Risk. Will plan to update the threat mention in the
HWO. Otherwise, Sunday will be warm, and even feel a little humid,
if dewpts can get into the 60s. Highs in the mid 70s to 80 east
of the mountains. Temps drop back to near-normal Sunday night in
the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12 AM EDT Friday: Good agreement amongst global models
provides above normal confidence in the extended period. The
progressive pattern will continue into next week. A cool
continental air mass will ride in on the tail of Sunday's cold
front, but full insolation and downslope flow off the southern
Appalachians will support highs still reaching the 70s for many on
Monday. Breezy but sub-advisory west/northwest winds should
gradually weaken late in the day. A transient 1030 mb high will
maintain the dry air mass and large diurnal swing in temperatures
into Tuesday. By Wednesday, return flow behind the high will support
increasing low level moisture off the Atlantic basin for at least
increasing clouds for southern areas if not supporting some shower
activity.

Probably the biggest story is the emergence of a full latitude
trough and associated frontal system to impact the area late in the
work week. It is too early for the details but this has the
potential to be a vigorous cold front with widespread precipitation.
Temperatures will likely fall below normal late next week in
response to the Canadian air mass settling into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued below normal confidence in 06Z
TAFs mainly due to convection crossing the area during the pre-dawn
hours. Still expect a fairly solid line of showers and embedded
tstms to cross the area west to east. Expect the line to weaken
and shift south and east of all the TAF sites by 15z, with VFR
conditions expected the rest of the period. Cigs and visby are
highly variable at time of 06z TAF issuance, but expected to be
mainly MVFR to IFR thru about 12z, with rapid improvement in the
12-15z time frame. Winds are rather varialbe, and even favoring a
NE to E direction within a cold pool, despite guidance saying it
should be stiff out of the SE to SW. Still expect winds to favor a
SE direction, then shift to SW with low-end gusts during the midday
to late aftn hours. KAVL is the exception as winds turn to NW.

Outlook: Another system may bring showers Saturday with
thunderstorms possible by Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High  88%     High  90%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  89%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   71%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  84%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  96%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ010-NCZ059-062>064-270615-
Rabun-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, thunderstorms will occur at times through the early
morning hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning, strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms
could briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ051-052-058-270615-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, thunderstorms will occur at times through the early
morning hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning, strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms
could briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form
of damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ017-SCZ003-006-007-012-013-019-270615-
Habersham-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region through daybreak Friday. Some of the storms could be strong
with torrential rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts, particularly across the lower Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-270615-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...TORNADO WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region through daybreak Friday. Some of the storms could be strong
with torrential rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts, particularly across the lower Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>050-270615-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will occur at times through the early morning hours.
Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning,
strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms could
briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form
of damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-009-014-270615-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Chester-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ068-508-510-SCZ007-008-260730-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-
Spartanburg SC-
300 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...CLEVELAND...NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 259 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Forest City, or 7 miles northeast of Lake Bowen,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Gaffney, Kings Mountain, Boiling
Springs SC, Spindale, Boiling Springs NC, Duncan and Lyman.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8157 3557 8155 3556 8152 3555 8151
      3552 8151 3542 8146 3523 8132 3487 8222
      3519 8222 3557 8168 3556 8164 3557 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 240DEG 61KT 3518 8199

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010-011-260745-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-
315 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT...HART...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND WEST CENTRAL
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EDT...

At 315 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Hartwell, or near Royston, moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Hartwell, Homeland Park, Royston, Reed Creek, Iva, Bowman,
Lake Secession, Canon and Franklin Springs.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3419 8309 3420 8309 3421 8308
      3423 8308 3426 8311 3427 8311 3424 8317
      3427 8320 3440 8310 3456 8265 3424 8252
      3416 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 252DEG 47KT 3430 8305

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ068>070-SCZ008-009-260800-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
CLEVELAND...GASTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 AM EDT...

At 328 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelby, moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Shelby, Gaffney, Lincolnton, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly,
Belmont, Cherryville, Bessemer City and South Gastonia.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8095 3550 8096 3549 8095 3547 8095
      3546 8094 3538 8097 3538 8099 3537 8098
      3527 8102 3515 8102 3504 8178 3535 8160
      3547 8148 3555 8097 3554 8095 3553 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 252DEG 47KT 3530 8147

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

SCZ006-010>012-019-260815-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-Greenwood SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
349 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM EDT...

At 349 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Anderson, or near Honea Path, moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Fountain Inn, Belton, Honea Path, Ware Shoals, Due West,
Gray Court, Donalds, Shoals Junction and Fork Shoals.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8248 3443 8260 3454 8257 3475 8211
      3441 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 251DEG 47KT 3448 8245

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ036-057-069>072-260830-
Rowan NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
356 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...EASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EDT...

At 356 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Huntersville, or 4 miles south of Westport, moving east
at 55 mph.

Another area of storms will move across the southeastern part of
Rowan County.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Gastonia,
Northeast Charlotte, West Concord, Cornelius, Mooresville and Mt
Holly.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3536 8039 3527 8105 3529 8123
      3539 8120 3555 8105 3555 8096 3559 8093
      3561 8094 3581 8057 3578 8051 3578 8048
      3573 8045 3572 8038 3572 8034 3571 8032
      3568 8033 3558 8021 3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 251DEG 47KT 3544 8099

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ029-SCZ011-019-260830-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
401 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND WEST
CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EDT...

At 401 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elberton, moving east at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Elberton, Calhoun Falls, Due West, Lake Secession,
Lowndesville, Lake Strom Thurmond, Russell State Park, Middleton and
Lake Russell.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294 3405 8299
      3410 8304 3411 8303 3415 8306 3417 8310
      3425 8274 3421 8274 3428 8263 3435 8233
      3409 8218 3406 8236 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8259 3399 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 255DEG 60KT 3411 8287

MOORE