Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
217 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pass through the area today, but stalls out just
south of the region tonight. This will allow an active pattern to
continue this weekend as the front lifts back north on Saturday,
then another cold front slides through the area on Sunday. Cool and
dry high pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday: Based on radar trends and with coordination
with SPC and FFC/CAE offices, a Tornado Watch has been issued
for the Upper Savannah Valley counties (except Rabun/Habersham,
which are now behind the convection). The watch is in effect till
7 AM EDT this morning. Despite a cold pool holding on, convection
has shown some tight rotation coming off the GA Mountains. There
is more convection blossoming across the Atlanta metro area,
and will arrive over the next couple of hours. The cold pool
may erode and allow this convection to survive further north
and east. Meanwhile, continued heavy rain from Habersham County
NE along the escarpment is causing flash flooding concerns. No
changes were made to the Flash Flood Watch, which is in effect till
8 AM EDT. Guidance is in good agreement that a fairly solid band
of showers and embedded tstms will slowly cross the FA from west
to east thru mid-morning. Overall, expect a lack of instability
better antecedent conditions to limit the flood and tornado threat
from the I-26 corridor east. But conditions will be watched closely.

Otherwise, a frontal boundary should push out of the region by 18z
today as sfc high builds in to the NW and we enter a post-frontal
environment by the very end of the forecast period. Drier weather
will prevail, with highs in the low 80s in most locations outside
the mountains and 70s in the higher elevations. One factor that
can play a role is how fast the cold front exits the region and
allows for the clouds to scour out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: the short term picks up at 00Z Saturday,
with a shortwave trough rounding the broader ridge sitting over the
east coast.  By this time, forcing from the trough will largely
be tapering off to the north of our CWA, and a brief bout of
dry weather is in store for Friday night.  Renewed southwesterly
flow over the Tennessee Valley will pump Gulf moisture into the
lower troposphere through the day Saturday, working with weak
mid-level forcing to produce scattered afternoon showers across TN,
spreading into the Blue Ridge Mountains and western SC Upstate
by late Saturday afternoon.  The developing surface low skirts
its way northeast along the Appalachians and drags a cold front
across our area early Sunday afternoon.

Ample WAA ahead of this front paired with decent solar insolation
should prime the environment for convection, with the Piedmont
and Upstate seeing SBCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and a
40-50kt LLJ riding out ahead of the frontal boundary.  Given the
timing of the frontal passage in the early afternoon, this is a
pattern to keep an eye on over the next day or two.  Some precip
may still be falling for at least the eastern part of our CWA by
the end of the short term at 00Z Monday, as the front tapers off
to the east.

Temps are on track to stay several degrees above normal on Saturday
and Sunday, before dropping back to near-normal Sunday night in
the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12 AM EDT Friday: Good agreement amongst global models
provides above normal confidence in the extended period. The
progressive pattern will continue into next week. A cool
continental air mass will ride in on the tail of Sunday's cold
front, but full insolation and downslope flow off the southern
Appalachians will support highs still reaching the 70s for many on
Monday. Breezy but sub-advisory west/northwest winds should
gradually weaken late in the day. A transient 1030 mb high will
maintain the dry air mass and large diurnal swing in temperatures
into Tuesday. By Wednesday, return flow behind the high will support
increasing low level moisture off the Atlantic basin for at least
increasing clouds for southern areas if not supporting some shower
activity.

Probably the biggest story is the emergence of a full latitude
trough and associated frontal system to impact the area late in the
work week. It is too early for the details but this has the
potential to be a vigorous cold front with widespread precipitation.
Temperatures will likely fall below normal late next week in
response to the Canadian air mass settling into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued below normal confidence in 06Z
TAFs mainly due to convection crossing the area during the pre-dawn
hours. Still expect a fairly solid line of showers and embedded
tstms to cross the area west to east. Expect the line to weaken
and shift south and east of all the TAF sites by 15z, with VFR
conditions expected the rest of the period. Cigs and visby are
highly variable at time of 06z TAF issuance, but expected to be
mainly MVFR to IFR thru about 12z, with rapid improvement in the
12-15z time frame. Winds are rather varialbe, and even favoring a
NE to E direction within a cold pool, despite guidance saying it
should be stiff out of the SE to SW. Still expect winds to favor a
SE direction, then shift to SW with low-end gusts during the midday
to late aftn hours. KAVL is the exception as winds turn to NW.

Outlook: Another system may bring showers Saturday with
thunderstorms possible by Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  92%     High  92%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  83%     High  90%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  84%     High  96%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   79%     High  86%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  90%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for NCZ051-052-
     058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK/CAC
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ010-NCZ059-062>064-270615-
Rabun-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, thunderstorms will occur at times through the early
morning hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning, strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms
could briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ051-052-058-270615-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, thunderstorms will occur at times through the early
morning hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning, strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms
could briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form
of damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ017-SCZ003-006-007-012-013-019-270615-
Habersham-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region through daybreak Friday. Some of the storms could be strong
with torrential rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts, particularly across the lower Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-270615-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...TORNADO WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region through daybreak Friday. Some of the storms could be strong
with torrential rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts, particularly across the lower Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>050-270615-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will occur at times through the early morning hours.
Any thunderstorm will be capable of cloud-to-ground lightning,
strong gusty winds, and torrential rainfall. A few storms could
briefly become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Saturday night and early Sunday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected. These storms also may produce severe weather in the form
of damaging wind and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-009-014-270615-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Chester-
201 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur at times through tonight. Any
thunderstorm will be capable of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1242 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-260515-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
1242 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HABERSHAM...RABUN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1241 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Cleveland, or near Unicoi State Park, moving northeast
at 70 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley,
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lake Burton and Lakemont.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3488 8366 3492 8360 3494 8360
      3495 8355 3499 8355 3499 8349 3500 8348
      3500 8352 3516 8323 3499 8310 3488 8324
      3482 8328 3482 8331 3470 8336 3462 8364
      3466 8366 3468 8364 3476 8363 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 240DEG 63KT 3475 8375

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
114 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-260545-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
114 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN STEPHENS...
HABERSHAM...RABUN AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM
EDT...

At 114 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles southwest of
Clayton to 3 miles south of Cleveland, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Clayton, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Demorest, Mount Airy,
Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard and Sky Valley.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8366 3454 8362 3455 8362 3458 8364
      3459 8364 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
      3468 8364 3471 8364 3499 8340 3500 8309
      3504 8294 3451 8337 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 250DEG 41KT 3483 8346 3455 8376

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ056-068>070-502-504-506>510-260700-
Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Catawba NC-
223 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN
MCDOWELL...RUTHERFORD...POLK...WESTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL...CENTRAL CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 222 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rutherfordton, or near Spindale, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, Lincolnton, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Columbus,
St. Stephens, Longview, Valdese and Spindale.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 8133 3580 8129 3549 8111 3518 8193
      3520 8235 3539 8226 3579 8153 3581 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 239DEG 60KT 3534 8195

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
228 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

SCZ002-003-005>007-010-260700-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
228 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND EASTERN PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 228 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Easley, or 5 miles west of Berea, moving east at 55
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville,
Greer, Taylors, Berea, Welcome, Powdersville and Travelers Rest.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8262 3519 8235 3518 8191 3484 8219
      3467 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 248DEG 48KT 3490 8256

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

GAZ026-028-029-260715-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-
238 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ELBERT AND HART COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

At 238 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Commerce, moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Carnesville, Royston, Lavonia, Bowman, Canon, Franklin
Springs, Bowersville, Victoria Bryant State Park and Reed Creek.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3423 8308 3427 8312 3424 8317
      3425 8320 3424 8325 3426 8330 3423 8335
      3426 8334 3433 8339 3435 8339 3448 8298
      3448 8296 3419 8288 3416 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 253DEG 48KT 3423 8345

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

NCZ035-036-056-069-260730-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
257 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN
ALEXANDER...LINCOLN AND CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 257 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Newton, or 6 miles southeast of Mountain View,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Statesville, Newton, Lincolnton, St. Stephens, Conover,
Maiden, Westport, Troutman and Claremont.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8085 3551 8087 3551 8091 3550 8093
      3542 8140 3542 8144 3547 8148 3558 8152
      3583 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 240DEG 61KT 3561 8131

MOORE