Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES
KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread convection will continue through 00z across much of the
area with areal coverage decreasing from NW to SE after 02z. KBVO
may be the exception with TSRA ending between 22-00z. MVFR cigs to
prevail for most of the period, with cigs lifting to VFR levels
during the overnight period. VFR conditions then will prevail for
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1030 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main update to the zones is adding severe watch 289 to most of
eastern OK and all of northwest AR. Tweaked pops some through 18z,
but otherwise rest of forecast elements have been left as they
are. Favorable environment for severe this afternoon will focus
across SE OK and NW AR, where the potential for supercells will be
in place. Additionally, the threat for heavy rainfall ahead of a
slowly moving frontal boundary will persist across the entire
area. Quick onset flash flooding, especially across northeast
Oklahoma will be possible through the afternoon. The heavy rain
potential will slowly shift southeast of the I-44 corridor by
late afternoon or early evening.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...
...DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET... This Morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Storms have developed across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma
this morning. These storms will spread northeast and expand in areal
coverage as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, a cold front
extending from north central to southwest Oklahoma. This boundary
will slowly sag into eastern Oklahoma today. As upper level energy
spreads into the region, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase along and southeast of the Interstate 44 corridor and push
southeast during the afternoon.

Cities along the Arkansas River may experience flooding in areas
that typically remain dry and there is potential for catastrophic
flooding should the heavier totals be realized near the larger
Arkansas river channel.

Scattered strong to severe storm potential will continue
through the day. These storms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The highest severe risk
will be across southeast portions of Oklahoma into western Arkansas
during the afternoon, with a transition to heavy rain and flooding
by tonight as the front moves through the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a brief period of dry weather Thursday and Friday,
thunderstorm chances return by the weekend and continue into early
next week. The threat of organized severe weather will be less, but
there remains potential for at least locally heavy rainfall.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
An organized severe weather event is expected Wednesday with
warnings and watches for both flash flooding and severe weather
likely for portions of the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
05/29/2019                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ALL OVER SILOAM SPRINGS.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1201 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ019-020-291745-
Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
1201 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1201 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Mulberry, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mulberry...                       Dyer...
Cass...                           Fern...
Jethro...                         Barnes...
Bidville...                       Redding...
Piney...                          Toney...
Locke...                          Turners Bend...
Lonelm...                         Cravens...
Paradise...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 18 and
31.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3543 9402 3554 9419 3576 9405 3576 9391
      3577 9391 3577 9381 3565 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 218DEG 18KT 3555 9406

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
05/29/2019                   OKMULGEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING CITY STREETS, IN SOME LOCATIONS, WATER IS
            SWEEPING VEHICLES OFF THE ROADWAY.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHFILL                36.26N 94.36W
05/29/2019                   BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLICE REPORT TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORT RELAYED
            BY MEDIA.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ066-067-070-071-291815-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
1235 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...SOUTH
CENTRAL WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND EASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1235 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hoffman,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Okmulgee...
Henryetta...                      Haskell...
Morris...                         Dewar...
Schulter...                       Oktaha...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Grayson...                        Council Hill...
Rentiesville...                   Hoffman...
Stidham...                        Bald Hill...
Lake Eufaula State Park...        Wainwright...
Summit...                         Hitchita...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 240 and
262.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3531 9568 3546 9601 3585 9590 3585 9561
      3579 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 224DEG 29KT 3551 9580

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SILOAM SPRINGS     36.21N 94.51W
05/29/2019                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN, BLOCKING DAWN HILL ROAD NORTHEAST OF
            SILOAM SPRINGS. REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JDS