Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing widespread rains continue with the stronger thunderstorms
confined to SE OK through western AR and points east and south.
The risk for severe weather will continue to progress eastward
with the potential ending across the forecast area by early
evening. Ongoing flooding will continue to be worsened by the
additional rainfall, however the most susceptible region along
and north of the Arkansas River will see the lighter additional
rains and also experience the back of precip by early this
evening. The current Flash Flood Watch will be left as is,
however expectations are that it will be trimmed from north to
south and likely expired before the current ending time.

Dry and mild conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with low
chances of precip returning over the weekend. The pattern will
begin to transition toward a building upper ridge placing the
region in a period NW flow aloft. This is a typical pattern for
MCS development within the region and models will often struggle
latching onto a consistent solution. This will be the focus of
the early week forecast. Thereafter, flow aloft is shown to become
rather weak while an influx of deep moisture spreads through the
Plains. Again, this pattern will likely offer heavy rain potential
but lacking the organization of previous events given the
weakening flow. Overall an extended period of daily precip chances
will persist through next week with many details yet to be
refined.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  80  60  84 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   63  81  60  85 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   60  80  58  83 /  70   0   0  10
BVO   56  78  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   59  75  56  80 /  90   0   0   0
BYV   60  76  57  81 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   60  79  59  82 /  60   0   0   0
MIO   57  78  57  82 /  50   0   0   0
F10   59  79  59  82 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   63  82  60  84 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...
...DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET... This Morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Storms have developed across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma
this morning. These storms will spread northeast and expand in areal
coverage as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, a cold front
extending from north central to southwest Oklahoma. This boundary
will slowly sag into eastern Oklahoma today. As upper level energy
spreads into the region, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase along and southeast of the Interstate 44 corridor and push
southeast during the afternoon.

Cities along the Arkansas River may experience flooding in areas
that typically remain dry and there is potential for catastrophic
flooding should the heavier totals be realized near the larger
Arkansas river channel.

Scattered strong to severe storm potential will continue
through the day. These storms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The highest severe risk
will be across southeast portions of Oklahoma into western Arkansas
during the afternoon, with a transition to heavy rain and flooding
by tonight as the front moves through the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a brief period of dry weather Thursday and Friday,
thunderstorm chances return by the weekend and continue into early
next week. The threat of organized severe weather will be less, but
there remains potential for at least locally heavy rainfall.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
An organized severe weather event is expected Wednesday with
warnings and watches for both flash flooding and severe weather
likely for portions of the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW TULSA             36.16N 95.99W
05/29/2019                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEIGHBORHOOD STREET FLOODING IN THE 4300-4500 BLOCK OF W.
            5TH ST. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             OAK GROVE               36.46N 93.45W
05/29/2019  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY NWS SPRINGFIELD.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
153 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ029-OKZ076-291945-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
153 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SEBASTIAN AND
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 153 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cameron, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Poteau...
Greenwood...                      Pocola...
Arkoma...                         Hackett...
Bonanza...                        Midland...
Cameron...                        Excelsior...
Jenny Lind...                     Rock Island...
Braden...                         Mill Creek...
Rye Hill...                       Jenson...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 10 and 14.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas...and southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3520 9418 3497 9450 3510 9466 3531 9449
      3531 9448 3532 9448 3538 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 222DEG 20KT 3510 9452

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
201 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ049-075-076-292000-
Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
201 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA...
SOUTHEASTERN LATIMER AND SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Nashoba, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Talihina...                       Albion...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Talimena State Park...
Bengal...                         Nashoba...
Kiamichi...                       Whitesboro...
Tuskahoma...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3442 9519 3454 9535 3495 9498 3477 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 222DEG 20KT 3454 9521

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
204 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ053-292000-
Choctaw OK-
204 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 203 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Honey Grove, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Boswell...
Soper...                          Kent...
Goodland...                       Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Grant...
Fallon...                         Apple...
Speer...                          Unger...
Gay...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3392 9591 3395 9594
      3412 9594 3415 9595 3416 9521 3388 9554
      3389 9555 3393 9556 3394 9560 3392 9561
      3391 9564 3391 9567 3389 9569 3390 9575
      3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 221DEG 24KT 3371 9594

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
234 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ029-OKZ076-292030-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
234 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND EAST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Heavener Runestone State Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Mansfield...
Hartford...                       Huntington...
Midland...                        Heavener Runestone State Park...
Patterson...                      Arkola...
Hodgen...                         Witcherville...
Dayton...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3506 9425 3506 9423 3497 9424 3495 9429
      3496 9433 3495 9434 3496 9437 3494 9439
      3495 9441 3493 9443 3493 9445 3475 9445
      3471 9451 3483 9468 3521 9434 3509 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 221DEG 24KT 3483 9454

69