Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms should persist across southeast Oklahoma
into the overnight hours, and possibly impact the northwest
Arkansas sites after 08Z. Otherwise, expect cigs to become MVFR
overnight. More widespread showers/thunderstorms will overspread
most of the area toward 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 945 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Storms have weakened this evening as activity has pushed into
stronger cap. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible overnight, however it appears the severe threat will be
minimal.

Focus quickly shifts to Wednesday as storms redevelop along the
I-44 corridor by late morning. 00Z NAM/CAMS indicating the
potential for an axis of heavier rainfall across the Tulsa metro,
which could lead to life threatening flash flooding given the
river levels along the Arkansas. Forecast has been updated to
increase QPF amounts across aforementioned area. Rainfall amounts
will continue to be refined overnight as additional data becomes
available. The threat for flash flooding will also remain high
across east-central Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas along the
Arkansas River channel as strong to severe storms push southeast
during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  69  78  59 / MMM  20  90  50
FSM   87  71  82  64 / MMM  40  90  90
MLC   85  71  79  61 / MMM  40 100  70
BVO   84  67  78  57 / MMM  20  80  50
FYV   84  67  77  60 / MMM  40 100  90
BYV   85  68  79  60 / MMM  30  90  90
MKO   85  70  78  60 / MMM  30 100  70
MIO   84  67  78  57 / MMM  20  90  70
F10   85  69  77  59 / MMM  30 100  60
HHW   86  72  81  65 / MMM  30  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
924 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
924 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...
...DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms with dangerous lightning.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening across
east-central Oklahoma, spreading into northwest Arkansas late
tonight. Storms are expected to remain below severe limits, however
small hail and brief heavy rainfall will be possible in the stronger
storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

More widespread thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to
develop by late Wednesday morning along the I-44 corridor and begin
to push southeast during the afternoon. Cities along the Arkansas
river may experience flooding in areas that typically remain dry and
there is potential for catastrophic flooding should the heavier
totals be realized near the larger Arkansas river channel.  Flooding
should be considered a high risk weather impact Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Scattered strong to severe storm development is
also expected by early afternoon. These storms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

After a brief period of dry weather Thursday and Friday,
thunderstorm chances return by the weekend and continue into early
next week. The threat of organized severe weather will be less, but
there remains potential for at least locally heavy rainfall.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

An organized severe weather event is expected Wednesday with
warnings and watches for both flash flooding and severe weather
likely for portions of the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ071-073-290630-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MCINTOSH AND CENTRAL
PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1256 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located 6 miles southwest
of Indianola, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Eufaula...
Krebs...                          Crowder...
Canadian...                       Indianola...
Hanna...                          Ashland...
Stidham...                        Raiford...
Haywood...                        Blocker...
Vivian...                         Arrowhead State Park...
Mcalester Regional Airport...     Lake Eufaula State Park...
Scipio...                         Arpelar...
Featherston...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 259 and
260.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603
      3512 9601 3515 9601 3515 9598 3517 9598
      3547 9560 3521 9545 3516 9545 3516 9542
      3507 9537 3503 9546 3503 9551 3501 9551
      3473 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 235DEG 43KT 3508 9582