Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
654 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop this morning at all the terminals with
showers and storms spreading in by late morning/afternoon.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon which will
result in MVFR ceilings, with IFR conditions and strong wind
gusts possible near storms. Rain may linger for KMLC and the
Arkansas terminals through the evening, before conditions begin
to improve after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing severe weather overnight has occupied much of our time,
but fortunately it appears there is little change to the previous
thinking with regards to the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms
currently expanding across west Texas will spread rapidly
northeast across Oklahoma today as a cold front sags slowly south
across the area. The stage will be set for a widespread 1-3 inch
rainfall event from east central and southeast Oklahoma across
northwest Arkansas, with lesser rainfall amounts across northeast
Oklahoma. Severe weather will also be a concern, especially from
southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. The flash flood
watch will be left as is at this time.

Dry weather will then prevail Thursday into the early part of the
weekend, but west northwest upper level flow will bring the
potential for MCS activity to move into the area from Saturday
night on. The timing of best MCS potential varies between the GFS
and ECMWF, but sided closer to the ECMWF for now. Confidence
however is low and chance pops will suffice for now into the early
to middle part of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  57  80  59 /  90  50   0   0
FSM   80  62  81  59 / 100  90   0   0
MLC   78  59  81  58 / 100  80   0   0
BVO   77  55  79  53 /  80  40   0   0
FYV   77  58  74  53 / 100  90   0   0
BYV   78  58  75  55 /  80  90   0   0
MKO   78  58  79  58 / 100  80   0   0
MIO   77  57  77  56 /  90  70  10   0
F10   78  58  79  58 / 100  60   0   0
HHW   80  62  82  59 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
855 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...
...DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET... This Morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Storms have developed across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma
this morning. These storms will spread northeast and expand in areal
coverage as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, a cold front
extending from north central to southwest Oklahoma. This boundary
will slowly sag into eastern Oklahoma today. As upper level energy
spreads into the region, showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase along and southeast of the Interstate 44 corridor and push
southeast during the afternoon.

Cities along the Arkansas River may experience flooding in areas
that typically remain dry and there is potential for catastrophic
flooding should the heavier totals be realized near the larger
Arkansas river channel.

Scattered strong to severe storm potential will continue
through the day. These storms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The highest severe risk
will be across southeast portions of Oklahoma into western Arkansas
during the afternoon, with a transition to heavy rain and flooding
by tonight as the front moves through the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a brief period of dry weather Thursday and Friday,
thunderstorm chances return by the weekend and continue into early
next week. The threat of organized severe weather will be less, but
there remains potential for at least locally heavy rainfall.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
An organized severe weather event is expected Wednesday with
warnings and watches for both flash flooding and severe weather
likely for portions of the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ064>066-291415-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
831 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
OKMULGEE AND NORTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 831 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Stroud to 3 miles east of Okfuskee.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Bristow...
Okfuskee...                       Beggs...
Depew...                          Slick...
Preston...                        Okmulgee State Park...
Welty...                          Liberty...
Milfay...                         Mason...
Hectorville...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 184 and 193.

LAT...LON 3568 9662 3586 9649 3585 9577 3583 9577
      3549 9610 3557 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 238DEG 26KT 3563 9665 3557 9616

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
852 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

OKZ060-064-066-067-070-291445-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
852 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CREEK...SOUTHWESTERN
WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE...NORTHERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 852 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Depew to 4 miles north of Beggs to 2 miles east
of Okmulgee. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Muskogee...                       Okmulgee...
Bristow...                        Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Haskell...                        Kiefer...
Morris...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Porter...                         Depew...
Taft...                           Boynton...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 181 and 212.

LAT...LON 3603 9630 3603 9553 3571 9529 3556 9601
      3577 9616 3576 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 246DEG 35KT 3579 9653 3580 9609 3563 9592

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     HAIL             OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
05/29/2019  E0.88 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS