Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2019

Tornado Watch 688

October 31, 201947 counties in North Carolina; 23 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 31, 2019, 3:39 PM EDT for 47 counties in North Carolina; 23 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 31, 2019, 3:39 PM EDT (19:39 UTC)
Expired: Oct 31, 2019, 10:55 PM EDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 70 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Anson County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

37 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 31, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Abbeville, Anderson, Greenwood	50 min
Oct 31, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cherokee, Greenville, Laurens, Spartanburg, Union	44 min
Oct 31, 3:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cleveland, Polk, Rutherford	47 min
Oct 31, 4:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Rutherford	41 min
Oct 31, 4:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Abbeville, Greenwood, Laurens	48 min
Oct 31, 4:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cleveland, Gaston	45 min
Oct 31, 4:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Edgefield, Saluda	52 min
Oct 31, 4:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cabarrus, Catawba, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg and 1 more	47 min
Oct 31, 5:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Fairfield, Kershaw, Lexington, Newberry, Richland, Saluda	54 min
Oct 31, 5:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Aiken, Barnwell, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda	65 min
Oct 31, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph	57 min
Oct 31, 5:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cabarrus, Davie, Mecklenburg, Rowan	40 min
Oct 31, 5:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Chester, York	36 min
Oct 31, 5:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union	67 min
Oct 31, 5:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Montgomery, Randolph, Stanly	51 min
Oct 31, 5:59 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CAE	Lexington, Richland	31 min
Oct 31, 6:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Calhoun, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lexington, Richland	48 min
Oct 31, 6:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Chatham, Guilford, Randolph	46 min
Oct 31, 6:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson, Montgomery, Richmond, Stanly	64 min
Oct 31, 6:27 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Guilford	22 min
Oct 31, 6:45 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Anson, Montgomery, Richmond, Stanly	30 min
Oct 31, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Bamberg, Calhoun, Orangeburg, Richland	44 min
Oct 31, 6:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Guilford, Montgomery, Moore and 4 more	72 min
Oct 31, 6:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Chesterfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee, Sumter	82 min
Oct 31, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Granville, Orange, Person	58 min
Oct 31, 7:17 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Person	43 min
Oct 31, 7:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Darlington, Florence, Marlboro	53 min
Oct 31, 7:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Calhoun, Clarendon, Lee, Orangeburg, Sumter	63 min
Oct 31, 7:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore, Richmond and 1 more	81 min
Oct 31, 7:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Granville, Orange, Wake	80 min
Oct 31, 7:47 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Durham, Granville, Orange, Person	43 min
Oct 31, 7:50 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Anson, Richmond, Scotland	25 min
Oct 31, 8:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Franklin, Granville, Person, Vance, Warren	60 min
Oct 31, 8:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Moore, Sampson	26 min
Oct 31, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Johnston, Wake	46 min
Oct 31, 9:05 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Franklin, Wake	23 min
Oct 31, 9:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Halifax, Vance, Warren	28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 521 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 524 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 31, 11:12 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Caldwell, Mitchell and 3 more	2 hr
Oct 31, 12:45 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga	4 hr
Oct 31, 1:11 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caswell, Forsyth, Guilford, Person, Rockingham, Stokes and 3 more	3 hr
Oct 31, 3:16 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Caswell, Northampton, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Wilkes and 1 more	8 hr
Oct 31, 4:01 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caswell, Guilford, Rockingham	119 min
Oct 31, 6:36 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham and 26 more	114 min
Oct 31, 1:25 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Abbeville, Anderson, McCormick	2 hr
Oct 31, 3:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Edgefield, McCormick and 1 more	5 hr
Oct 31, 6:34 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley, Calhoun and 8 more	56 min
Oct 31, 7:58 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Clarendon, Colleton, Dorchester and 6 more	62 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2019 Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2019 Every tornado watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.