Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Columbia, SC

532 
WWUS52 KCAE 312316
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCC009-017-075-079-312330-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-191031T2330Z/
Calhoun SC-Bamberg SC-Orangeburg SC-Richland SC-
716 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN BAMBERG...CENTRAL ORANGEBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES...

At 716 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Poinsett State Park to near Elloree to Bowman,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Orangeburg, Bamberg, Brookdale, St. Matthews, Branchville, Bowman,
Elloree, Claflin College, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg
County Airport, Rivers Bridge State Park, Edisto Gardens, Ehrhardt,
Cameron, Rowesville, Cordova, Cope, Poplar Creek Landing, Fort Motte
and Stumphole Landing.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 138 and 169.
 Interstate 95 between mile markers 85 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central South
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8114 3382 8081 3384 8063 3379 8060
      3373 8063 3364 8053 3363 8054 3359 8050
      3333 8051 3313 8089 3306 8090 3310 8094
      3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 261DEG 36KT 3378 8062 3360 8063 3333 8070 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area this evening
with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the
front. There will be a threat of damaging winds and possibly a
few tornadoes. Cool, dry weather will follow behind the cold
front with temperatures below normal Friday through Monday. As
high pressure moves offshore, moisture and rain chances will
return to the forecast by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area late this afternoon and evening. The storms will
occur just ahead of a cold front. High moisture and moderate
instability developed in the south flow ahead of the front.
The afternoon analysis indicated dew point temperatures near 70
and surface-based LI values near -5. Shear was high with a
40-knot h85 jet. The main thunderstorm threat is damaging wind
but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with SRH values
forecast 150-200 m2/s2. The flood threat is low because of a
fast storm movement. Radar trends and the high-resolution models
indicate the threat moving from west to east during the 400 pm
to 1000 pm time frame.

Strong cold advection is expected behind the front late as
temperatures rapidly fall overnight into the upper 30s in the
western Midlands and upper CSRA to lower 40s eastern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and drier air will filter into our forecast area (FA)
Friday behind the cold front. The center of high pressure will
shift NE into the Central Apps/Mid Atlantic Friday night. Some
question about whether there could be a little wind over our FA
which could impede ideal radiational cooling conditions. Latest
guidance suggesting mid 30s north to near 40 south. So, some
risk of frost at least northern areas by early Saturday morning.
The cool dry air will be reinforced by a dry front coming
through late Saturday. Wind expected to stay up Saturday night,
though some decoupling possible northern FA late as the center
of high gets closer. So, risk of frost again northern areas
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure center will shift to the Mid Atlantic
Sunday/Sunday night.  Some question about wind again for Sunday
night and its impact on frost potential.  Again, the northern FA
would have a better chance of lighter winds closer to the high
center, so risk of frost again early Monday morning.

Early to mid week, some upper troughiness will set up over the
central CONUS/Mississippi Valley, with a SW flow aloft for our
region.  This along with surface high pressure moving offshore, will
direct increasing moisture into our region Monday night into
Thursday. Temps will moderate as well.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main issue is a line of strong thunderstorms moving through
the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind may
occur. The line will exit the area around 02z.

Gusty winds will be associated with the front. Expect general
gusts near and just behind the front around 25 knots based on
observation trends.

Clearing will occur in the wake of the front tonight as a
colder and drier airmass overspreads the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread significant aviation
issues expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
010900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A cold
front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms into and through
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front. The main
threat will be damaging wind gusts, although an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Risk of late night/early morning frost, mainly northern Midlands,
Friday night through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW NEWBERRY          34.28N 81.63W
10/31/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE OAK TREE DOWN ON POPE ST. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
544 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCZ115-116-312230-
Northern Lancaster SC-Southern Lancaster SC-
544 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Northern Lancaster
and Southern Lancaster Counties Until 630 PM EDT....

At 544 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Fishing Creek Reservoir, or 10 miles
southwest of Lancaster, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lancaster, Indian Land, Waxhaw, Great Falls, Kershaw, Elgin, Heath
Springs, USC Lancaster, Irwin, Andrew Jackson State Park, Van Wyck,
Buford, Fishing Creek Reservoir, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood
Estates, Community of Almond Glen, Faith Christian School, Carolina
Commons Shopping Center, Bear Creek Park and McDonald Green
Elementary School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3482 8080 3482 8057 3466 8043
      3461 8041 3456 8055 3451 8052 3449 8055
      3448 8066 3451 8070 3448 8074 3454 8074
      3447 8089 3465 8089 3470 8086 3483 8090
      3484 8087 3493 8086 3501 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 241DEG 33KT 3464 8094

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW AUGUSTA            33.44N 82.03W
10/31/2019                   RICHMOND           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RICHMOND COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED TRAFFIC
            LIGHTS AND POWERLINES DOWN ON DEANS BRIDGE
            RD AT RICHMOND HILL RD.

&&

HC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW LAKE MURRAY OF RI 34.11N 81.27W
10/31/2019  M58 MPH          RICHLAND           SC   MESONET

            RCWINDS MESONET EQUIPMENT AT COAST GUARD
            ISLAND ON LAKE MURRAY MEASURED A 58 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

HC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.99N 81.23W
10/31/2019                   LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF LARGE TREE DOWN
            BLOCKING THE ROAD ON DREHER ST JUST PAST
            HARMON ST. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCZ027-028-030-031-035>038-041-312315-
Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-
Bamberg SC-Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-Richland SC-
633 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Orangeburg...
southeastern Lexington...Barnwell...east central Aiken...Calhoun...
Bamberg...west central Clarendon...southwestern Sumter and
southeastern Richland Counties Until 715 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 632 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Sandy Run to 6
miles north of Appleton, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Orangeburg, Barnwell, Bamberg, Denmark, Brookdale, Williston,
Blackville, St. Matthews, Branchville, Bowman, Elloree, Santee State
Park, Orangeburg County Airport, Barnwell State Park, Claflin
College, South Carolina State University, Poinsett State Park, Edisto
Gardens, Swansea and North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Marion should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

These storms may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio
and television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 127 and 166.

LAT...LON 3316 8154 3375 8127 3386 8038 3328 8059
      3313 8088 3312 8089 3311 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 246DEG 51KT 3375 8102 3313 8137