Alert archive / South Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

October 31, 2019Lancaster County, South Carolina

NWS Columbia, SC issued this special weather statement at Oct 31, 2019, 5:44 PM EDT for Lancaster County, South Carolina. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 31, 2019, 5:44 PM EDT (21:44 UTC)
Expired: Oct 31, 2019, 6:30 PM EDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Columbia, SC

County Lancaster County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 521 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 524 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 31, 4:46 PM EDT, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 4:46 PM EDT, 58 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area this evening
with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the
front. There will be a threat of damaging winds and possibly a
few tornadoes. Cool, dry weather will follow behind the cold
front with temperatures below normal Friday through Monday. As
high pressure moves offshore, moisture and rain chances will
return to the forecast by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area late this afternoon and evening. The storms will
occur just ahead of a cold front. High moisture and moderate
instability developed in the south flow ahead of the front.
The afternoon analysis indicated dew point temperatures near 70
and surface-based LI values near -5. Shear was high with a
40-knot h85 jet. The main thunderstorm threat is damaging wind
but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with SRH values
forecast 150-200 m2/s2. The flood threat is low because of a
fast storm movement. Radar trends and the high-resolution models
indicate the threat moving from west to east during the 400 pm
to 1000 pm time frame.

Strong cold advection is expected behind the front late as
temperatures rapidly fall overnight into the upper 30s in the
western Midlands and upper CSRA to lower 40s eastern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and drier air will filter into our forecast area (FA)
Friday behind the cold front. The center of high pressure will
shift NE into the Central Apps/Mid Atlantic Friday night. Some
question about whether there could be a little wind over our FA
which could impede ideal radiational cooling conditions. Latest
guidance suggesting mid 30s north to near 40 south. So, some
risk of frost at least northern areas by early Saturday morning.
The cool dry air will be reinforced by a dry front coming
through late Saturday. Wind expected to stay up Saturday night,
though some decoupling possible northern FA late as the center
of high gets closer. So, risk of frost again northern areas
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure center will shift to the Mid Atlantic
Sunday/Sunday night.  Some question about wind again for Sunday
night and its impact on frost potential.  Again, the northern FA
would have a better chance of lighter winds closer to the high
center, so risk of frost again early Monday morning.

Early to mid week, some upper troughiness will set up over the
central CONUS/Mississippi Valley, with a SW flow aloft for our
region.  This along with surface high pressure moving offshore, will
direct increasing moisture into our region Monday night into
Thursday. Temps will moderate as well.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main issue is a line of strong thunderstorms moving through
the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind may
occur. The line will exit the area around 02z.

Gusty winds will be associated with the front. Expect general
gusts near and just behind the front around 25 knots based on
observation trends.

Clearing will occur in the wake of the front tonight as a
colder and drier airmass overspreads the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread significant aviation
issues expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 11:41 AM EDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
010900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A cold
front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms into and through
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front. The main
threat will be damaging wind gusts, although an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Risk of late night/early morning frost, mainly northern Midlands,
Friday night through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 31, 3:54 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE BELVEDERE         33.52N 81.93W
10/31/2019                   AIKEN              SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON
            MONTEREY AVE. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED AROUND 40
            TO 45 MPH BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS.

&&

HC

Special weather statement, Oct 31, 4:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
420 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-026-312115-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
420 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of McDuffie...Lincoln...
Columbia...McCormick...Saluda and Edgefield Counties Until 515 PM
EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 419 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Bobby Brown
State Park to Thomson, moving northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Martinez, Edgefield, Saluda, McCormick,
Harlem, Johnston, Lincolnton, Ridge Spring, Clarks Hill Recreation
Area, Edgefield County Airport, Elijah Clark State Park, Mistletoe
State Park, Wrightsboro, J. Strom Thurmond Dam, Thomson-McDuffie
County Airport, Appling and Riverwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
194.

LAT...LON 3398 8265 3396 8257 3402 8259 3408 8248
      3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8224 3398 8220
      3398 8205 3395 8203 3418 8186 3419 8173
      3415 8166 3415 8165 3388 8157 3332 8234
      3335 8255 3361 8263 3366 8251 3365 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 226DEG 60KT 3394 8250 3345 8253

CJR

Special weather statement, Oct 31, 5:19 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
519 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCZ115-312145-
Northern Lancaster SC-
519 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Northern Lancaster
County Until 545 PM EDT....

At 519 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Lesslie, or near Indian Land, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Indian Land, Waxhaw, Carolina Commons Shopping Center and Community
of Almond Glen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3489 8079 3485 8087 3486 8088
      3490 8088 3493 8086 3496 8087 3497 8088
      3501 8091 3503 8090 3505 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 240DEG 33KT 3493 8089

fwa

Local storm report, Oct 31, 5:21 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MURPHYS ESTATES         33.60N 81.94W
10/31/2019                   EDGEFIELD          SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EDGEFIELD EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED A REPORT
            THAT TWO FIRE FIGHTERS OBSERVED A FUNNEL
            CLOUD NEAR MURPHYS VILLAGE.

&&

HC

Local storm report, Oct 31, 5:24 PM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW NEWBERRY          34.28N 81.63W
10/31/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE OAK TREE DOWN ON POPE ST. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HC

Special weather statement, Oct 31, 5:44 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
544 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCZ115-116-312230-
Northern Lancaster SC-Southern Lancaster SC-
544 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Northern Lancaster
and Southern Lancaster Counties Until 630 PM EDT....

At 544 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Fishing Creek Reservoir, or 10 miles
southwest of Lancaster, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lancaster, Indian Land, Waxhaw, Great Falls, Kershaw, Elgin, Heath
Springs, USC Lancaster, Irwin, Andrew Jackson State Park, Van Wyck,
Buford, Fishing Creek Reservoir, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood
Estates, Community of Almond Glen, Faith Christian School, Carolina
Commons Shopping Center, Bear Creek Park and McDonald Green
Elementary School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3482 8080 3482 8057 3466 8043
      3461 8041 3456 8055 3451 8052 3449 8055
      3448 8066 3451 8070 3448 8074 3454 8074
      3447 8089 3465 8089 3470 8086 3483 8090
      3484 8087 3493 8086 3501 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 241DEG 33KT 3464 8094

CJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Columbia, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 31, 11:32 AM EDT	Lake Wind Advisory	CAE	Aiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Chesterfield, Clarendon and 11 more	14 hr
Oct 31, 3:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CAE	McCormick	25 min
Oct 31, 4:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Edgefield, McCormick, Saluda	55 min
Oct 31, 4:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Edgefield, Saluda	52 min
Oct 31, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Aiken, Edgefield, McCormick	47 min
Oct 31, 4:43 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CAE	Aiken, Edgefield, McCormick	32 min
Oct 31, 5:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Fairfield, Kershaw, Lexington, Newberry, Richland, Saluda	54 min
Oct 31, 5:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Aiken, Barnwell, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda	65 min
Oct 31, 5:59 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CAE	Lexington, Richland	31 min
Oct 31, 6:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Calhoun, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lexington, Richland	48 min
Oct 31, 6:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CAE	Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Orangeburg	42 min
Oct 31, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Bamberg, Calhoun, Orangeburg, Richland	44 min
Oct 31, 6:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Chesterfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee, Sumter	82 min
Oct 31, 7:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAE	Calhoun, Clarendon, Lee, Orangeburg, Sumter	63 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in South Carolina, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.