Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Columbia, SC

926 
WWUS52 KCAE 312108
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
508 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCC037-081-312130-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-191031T2130Z/
Edgefield SC-Saluda SC-
508 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN EDGEFIELD AND SALUDA COUNTIES...

At 508 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northeast of Saluda to near Edgefield, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Batesburg-Leesville, Edgefield, Saluda, Johnston, Ridge Spring,
Saluda County Airport, Monetta, Ward, Strom Thurmond High School,
Saluda Co Sheriff's Office, Good Hope, Northside Fire Station Main,
Hollywood Elementary School, Emory, Cleora, Delmar, Edgefield Federal
Correction Institution, Harmony, Pleasant Lane and Wyses Ferry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central South
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8192 3413 8187 3417 8188 3418 8186
      3417 8177 3419 8173 3415 8164 3408 8154
      3407 8147 3388 8157 3380 8167 3373 8214
      3383 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 253DEG 30KT 3410 8166 3380 8187 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
213 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area this afternoon
and evening with showers and thunderstorms likely along and
ahead of the front. There will be a threat of damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes. Cool, dry weather will follow behind
the cold front with temperatures below normal Friday through
Monday. As high pressure moves offshore, moisture and rain
chances will return to the forecast by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar showing a line of convection along the cold front
extending from western NC southward through central GA with
scattered isolated storms developing out ahead of the main line.
Upper trough over the Midwest continues to lift northeastward
into the Great Lakes region while a cold front extends southward
from a surface low over northern Ohio. Deep and moist
south/southwesterly flow will provide ample fuel for convection
with PWAT values around 1.8 inches (nearly 200% of normal) and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong winds ahead of
the front already gusting to 30 mph or more and cold advection
on the back side of the front will result in the need for a Lake
Wind Advisory which has been issued through 4am.

Hi-res guidance continues to highlight the main time frame of
convection moving through the forecast are during 4pm-10pm with
a line of storms pushing east through the forecast area.
Sufficient 0-6km shear of 40+ knots along with MLCAPE values
exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg will support possible severe storms and
SPC has the area outlooked in a marginal and slight risk.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out with SRH values forecast to be
around 150-200 m2/s2.

Strong cold advection is expected behind the front late this
evening as temperatures rapidly fall overnight into the upper
30s in the western Midlands and upper CSRA to lower 40s eastern
Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and drier air will filter into our forecast area (FA)
Friday behind the cold front. The center of high pressure will
shift NE into the Central Apps/Mid Atlantic Friday night. Some
question about whether there could be a little wind over our FA
which could impede ideal radiational cooling conditions. Latest
guidance suggesting mid 30s north to near 40 south. So, some
risk of frost at least northern areas by early Saturday morning.
The cool dry air will be reinforced by a dry front coming
through late Saturday. Wind expected to stay up Saturday night,
though some decoupling possible northern FA late as the center
of high gets closer. So, risk of frost again northern areas
early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure center will shift to the Mid Atlantic
Sunday/Sunday night.  Some question about wind again for Sunday
night and its impact on frost potential.  Again, the northern FA
would have a better chance of lighter winds closer to the high
center, so risk of frost again early Monday morning.

Early to mid week, some upper troughiness will set up over the
central CONUS/Mississippi Valley, with a SW flow aloft for our
region.  This along with surface high pressure moving offshore, will
direct increasing moisture into our region Monday night into
Thursday. Temps will moderate as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite imagery showing earlier stratocumulus clouds have
transitioned to low VFR cumulus field with strong southerly
winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry conditions
expected through 20z then increasing showers and thunderstorms
move through 21z-02z time frame with possible gusty winds to 35
knots or more in thunderstorms. Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots will veer to the west behind the front
and remain gusty for a few hours behind the front and then
subside late tonight. Clearing will occur in the wake of the
front tonight as a colder and drier airmass overspreads the
area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread significant aviation
issues expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
010900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A cold
front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms into and through
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front. The main
threat will be damaging wind gusts, although an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Risk of late night/early morning frost, mainly northern Midlands,
Friday night through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
335 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-SCZ018-312000-
Lincoln GA-McCormick SC-
335 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Lincoln and McCormick
Counties Until 400 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 334 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Elijah Clark State Park, or 18 miles
northeast of Washington, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Clarks Hill Recreation Area, J. Strom Thurmond
Dam, Elijah Clark State Park, Mccormick County Airport, Hamilton
Branch State Park, Parksville, Modoc Boat Ramp, Bussey Point
Campground, New Hope, Long Cane Creek Picnic Area and Hickory Knob
State Resort Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8240 3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8225
      3397 8218 3398 8208 3395 8207 3393 8216
      3388 8216 3383 8212 3379 8216 3373 8218
      3365 8212 3364 8220 3369 8222 3370 8233
      3364 8247 3393 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 242DEG 36KT 3385 8244

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE BELVEDERE         33.52N 81.93W
10/31/2019                   AIKEN              SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON
            MONTEREY AVE. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED AROUND 40
            TO 45 MPH BASED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS.

&&

HC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
420 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-026-312115-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
420 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of McDuffie...Lincoln...
Columbia...McCormick...Saluda and Edgefield Counties Until 515 PM
EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 419 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Bobby Brown
State Park to Thomson, moving northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Martinez, Edgefield, Saluda, McCormick,
Harlem, Johnston, Lincolnton, Ridge Spring, Clarks Hill Recreation
Area, Edgefield County Airport, Elijah Clark State Park, Mistletoe
State Park, Wrightsboro, J. Strom Thurmond Dam, Thomson-McDuffie
County Airport, Appling and Riverwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
194.

LAT...LON 3398 8265 3396 8257 3402 8259 3408 8248
      3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8224 3398 8220
      3398 8205 3395 8203 3418 8186 3419 8173
      3415 8166 3415 8165 3388 8157 3332 8234
      3335 8255 3361 8263 3366 8251 3365 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 226DEG 60KT 3394 8250 3345 8253

CJR