Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 2129
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 31, 2019, 1:11 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2019, 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 31, 2019, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 91 counties
Allegany County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Washington County, MD, Caswell County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Person County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Bedford County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henry County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Morgan County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 50 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -79 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 621 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:12 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garrett | 2 hr |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 9 more | 10 hr |
| Oct 31, 4:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Washington and 1 more | 119 min |
| Oct 31, 7:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 31, 7:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot | 6 hr |
| Oct 31, 12:45 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga | 4 hr |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Caswell, Northampton, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Wilkes and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 31, 3:39 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 41 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 31, 6:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham and 26 more | 114 min |
| Oct 31, 4:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradford, Lackawanna, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne | 119 min |
| Oct 31, 6:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne and 1 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.