Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019

Mesoscale Discussion 2128

October 31, 20196 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 31, 2019, 11:12 AM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 31, 2019, 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC)
Expired
Oct 31, 2019, 1:15 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 66 counties

Garrett County, MD, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Fayette County, PA, Greene County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Carter County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Alleghany County, VA, Bland County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Radford, VA, Craig County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Logan County, WV, Marion County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2019-10-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 50 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2019-10-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 270 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
50 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
270 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
270 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 31, 1:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Frederick, Montgomery, Washington3 hr
Oct 31, 2:56 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 9 more10 hr
Oct 31, 4:01 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Washington and 1 more119 min
Oct 31, 7:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 10 more2 hr
Oct 31, 7:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot6 hr
Oct 31, 12:45 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlleghany, Ashe, Watauga4 hr
Oct 31, 3:16 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCaswell, Northampton, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Wilkes and 1 more8 hr
Oct 31, 3:39 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 41 more7 hr
Oct 31, 6:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham and 26 more114 min
Oct 31, 4:46 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Lackawanna, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne119 min
Oct 31, 6:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne and 1 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.