Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
703 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE...

.UPDATE...
Updated for forecast update & 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main updates to the going forecast were remove the "Marginal" west
of the MS River & out of the Delta as the cold front moves in &
slightly trim the "Slight" eastward with the line. A tornado watch
is in effect through 1PM for areas east of the Mississippi River
due to good juxtaposition of shear & instability parameter space.
Some of these storms have shown some indications of good rotation
& bowing/LEWP structures with an increasing QLCS development
across central & southwest Mississippi. In addition, expanded the
"Limited" for the wind threat for this afternoon for the entire
area due to some strong wind gusts mixing down just ahead of the
line in the southeast while leaving it elsewhere in the Delta
tonight. Lastly, the "Limited" for flash flooding is still
possible but somewhat marginal. Mainly adjusted to trim out areas
west of the Mississippi River. Updates & graphics will be out
shortly. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today & tonight:

Today: Storms are ongoing ahead of a strong cold front currently
situated across the ArkLaTex, with some increasing isentropic
showers & storms moving across the ArkLaMiss Delta. The strong
closed upper low is diving across Oklahoma & Texas, with strong
ascent spreading out across the southern Plains & ArkLaTex to
ArkLaMiss region. Expect increasing coverage over the next several
hours as isentropic ascent & advection, which will lead to some
increasing lapse rates & destabilization. Overall, some of the
storms out in this isentropic ascent are working with some weak
destabilization but nearly 40-60kts effective bulk shear. This is
leading to some storms trying to become rooted in the boundary layer
& bringing some damaging wind & marginal hail potential this morning
with some potential for a brief tornado, especially in any bowing
QLCS/LEWP structures. The best ascent will continue to progress east
through the morning. Most hi-res HREF CAM suite continue to show a
broken QLCS moving into our northwest Delta over the next hour or so
at daybreak, I-55 corridor ~8-10AM & near or east of the Highway 45
corridor & crossing the state line around noon. There remains good
agreement in HREF CAM suite that any bowing east-northeast QLCS/LEWP
structures or isolated supercells could bring damaging winds up to
60-70mph & a few tornadoes. The area is on the northern gradient of
around 60-70 CWASP & 1-2 effective significant tornado parameter
(STP) & 300-400 effective storm relative helicity (SRH). This will
lead to some decent tornado potential. In addition, there remains
some decent lapse rates for some hail. Thus, kept mostly the same
outlook in the HWO & graphics for "Slight" east of the Mississippi
River & "Marginal" elsewhere. As mentioned before, main risks are
damaging winds of 60-70mph, at least quarter size hail & tornadoes
possible.

In addition, there will be some decent rainfall potential upwards of
1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts as increasing moisture
ascent moves into the area. HREF CAM suite of guidance shows some
training of cells, especially with some of this being convective.
Right now, there will be some potential for flash flooding with
anomalously high moisture & low level moisture transport. Due to
this & in conjunction with WPC, added a "Limited" to the HWO &
graphics for flash flooding for today.

Lastly, there remains some good gradient wind potential this
afternoon & into the overnight hours as there is nearly 40-50kts
flow @ 925mb. This in conjunction with ~1000mb low swinging into the
Mid-South & strong pressure gradient along & in the wake of the cold
front, will lead to gusty gradient winds. Expect sustained winds of
20-25mph with gusts upwards of 30-35mph or higher at times,
especially after 2-3PM & continuing into the overnight hours. Thus,
left the "Limited" in the HWO & graphic mainly for areas along &
northwest of the Natchez Trace.

Tonight: Expect a much cooler & colder airmass as strong high
pressure builds into the region. This will lead to strong cold air
advection into the overnight hours. With the strong pressure
gradient & gusty winds into the overnight hours, expect wind chills
to fall into the teens in the north to low 20s elsewhere. Lows will
fall into the upper 20s to near freezing in the Pine Belt.
Otherwise, with some lingering deformation axis to the north & low
level moisture, models continue to indicate some potential for some
light snow flurries/grains &/or freezing drizzle mixing in across
the Delta after 00Z & spreading east-southeast while main upper low
& moisture pulls east-northeast. Expect any potential to make it
down to I-20 corridor near midnight & pull away just before daybreak
in the Golden Triangle. Right now, there are no concerns for impacts
or accumulation as it will remain very light. Only question mark is
p-type & how much ice nucleation can occur for much snow flurries or
snow grains to occur or some patchy freezing drizzle can mix in. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Scattering of MVFR to IFR ceilings due to widespread coverage of
thunderstorms are ongoing across the area. In addition, a more
organized bowing line is developing down near HKS & JAN. This line
will be around 19/13-16Z @ JAN & HKS & 19/16-19Z @ GTR, MEI, HBG &
PIB. Expect any TAF site impacted with brief IFR to LIFR ceilings
&/or visibility & gusty winds possibly near or in excess of
40-50kts as the line moves across. Most of the storms will through
each site within a couple hours after impacted. Expect conditions
to improve but MVFR ceilings to linger around. In addition,
expect gusty southerly winds around 25-30mph & gradually becoming
more westerly with some brief gusts near or in excess of 35mph in
central to eastern TAF sites ahead of the front & also in the wake
of the cold front passage. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  28  40  26 /  97  34   1   0
Meridian      65  31  42  24 /  91  25   2   0
Vicksburg     64  29  42  26 /  86  22   1   0
Hattiesburg   67  32  45  25 /  90  11   2   0
Natchez       64  29  43  27 /  87  13   1   0
Greenville    63  27  39  26 /  77  19   1   0
Greenwood     63  27  38  26 /  93  37   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DC/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-034-040-201315-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Washington-
Issaquena-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
prior to and following a cold frontal passage. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

MSZ019-201315-
Sunflower-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
prior to and following a cold frontal passage. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals will be up to 1 to
3 inches with locally higher amounts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

MSZ026>033-036>039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059-201315-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
prior to and following a cold frontal passage. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible, generally
east of the Mississippi River. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail at least to the size of
quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals will be up to 1 to
3 inches with locally higher amounts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ025-035-042-047-201315-
Leflore-Humphreys-Yazoo-Warren-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
prior to and following a cold frontal passage. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible generally west
of the I-55 corridor. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals will be up to 1 to
3 inches with locally higher amounts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

LAZ026-MSZ041-060-201315-
Concordia-Sharkey-Adams-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall
due to sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph
prior to and following a cold frontal passage. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible generally west
of the I-55 corridor. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ051-052-055>057-201315-
Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible, generally
east of the Mississippi River. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail at least to the size of
quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas. Rainfall totals will be up to 1 to
3 inches with locally higher amounts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph prior to and
following a cold frontal passage. High profile vehicles could
also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ058-061>066-072>074-201315-
Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
709 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible, generally
east of the Mississippi River. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail at least to the size of
quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph prior to and
following a cold frontal passage. High profile vehicles could
also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW BUDE              31.42N 90.88W
01/19/2019                   FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED AND A
            UTILITY POLE WAS BROKEN SOUTH OF MEADVILLE
            ON US 98 AND GLOSTER RD.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE BRANDON            32.22N 89.95W
01/19/2019                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. CURRENT
            EVENT TYPE IS THUNDER STORM WIND DAMAGE BUT
            A TORNADO COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE BRANDON            32.22N 89.95W
01/19/2019                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. CURRENT
            EVENT TYPE IS THUNDER STORM WIND DAMAGE, BUT
            A TORNADO COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N REDWATER            32.88N 89.53W
01/19/2019                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED, DAMAGE TO A HOME AND CHICKEN
            HOUSES IN THE SINGLETON AREA. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

DL