Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
703 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE...

.UPDATE...
Updated for forecast update & 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main updates to the going forecast were remove the "Marginal" west
of the MS River & out of the Delta as the cold front moves in &
slightly trim the "Slight" eastward with the line. A tornado watch
is in effect through 1PM for areas east of the Mississippi River
due to good juxtaposition of shear & instability parameter space.
Some of these storms have shown some indications of good rotation
& bowing/LEWP structures with an increasing QLCS development
across central & southwest Mississippi. In addition, expanded the
"Limited" for the wind threat for this afternoon for the entire
area due to some strong wind gusts mixing down just ahead of the
line in the southeast while leaving it elsewhere in the Delta
tonight. Lastly, the "Limited" for flash flooding is still
possible but somewhat marginal. Mainly adjusted to trim out areas
west of the Mississippi River. Updates & graphics will be out
shortly. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today & tonight:

Today: Storms are ongoing ahead of a strong cold front currently
situated across the ArkLaTex, with some increasing isentropic
showers & storms moving across the ArkLaMiss Delta. The strong
closed upper low is diving across Oklahoma & Texas, with strong
ascent spreading out across the southern Plains & ArkLaTex to
ArkLaMiss region. Expect increasing coverage over the next several
hours as isentropic ascent & advection, which will lead to some
increasing lapse rates & destabilization. Overall, some of the
storms out in this isentropic ascent are working with some weak
destabilization but nearly 40-60kts effective bulk shear. This is
leading to some storms trying to become rooted in the boundary layer
& bringing some damaging wind & marginal hail potential this morning
with some potential for a brief tornado, especially in any bowing
QLCS/LEWP structures. The best ascent will continue to progress east
through the morning. Most hi-res HREF CAM suite continue to show a
broken QLCS moving into our northwest Delta over the next hour or so
at daybreak, I-55 corridor ~8-10AM & near or east of the Highway 45
corridor & crossing the state line around noon. There remains good
agreement in HREF CAM suite that any bowing east-northeast QLCS/LEWP
structures or isolated supercells could bring damaging winds up to
60-70mph & a few tornadoes. The area is on the northern gradient of
around 60-70 CWASP & 1-2 effective significant tornado parameter
(STP) & 300-400 effective storm relative helicity (SRH). This will
lead to some decent tornado potential. In addition, there remains
some decent lapse rates for some hail. Thus, kept mostly the same
outlook in the HWO & graphics for "Slight" east of the Mississippi
River & "Marginal" elsewhere. As mentioned before, main risks are
damaging winds of 60-70mph, at least quarter size hail & tornadoes
possible.

In addition, there will be some decent rainfall potential upwards of
1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts as increasing moisture
ascent moves into the area. HREF CAM suite of guidance shows some
training of cells, especially with some of this being convective.
Right now, there will be some potential for flash flooding with
anomalously high moisture & low level moisture transport. Due to
this & in conjunction with WPC, added a "Limited" to the HWO &
graphics for flash flooding for today.

Lastly, there remains some good gradient wind potential this
afternoon & into the overnight hours as there is nearly 40-50kts
flow @ 925mb. This in conjunction with ~1000mb low swinging into the
Mid-South & strong pressure gradient along & in the wake of the cold
front, will lead to gusty gradient winds. Expect sustained winds of
20-25mph with gusts upwards of 30-35mph or higher at times,
especially after 2-3PM & continuing into the overnight hours. Thus,
left the "Limited" in the HWO & graphic mainly for areas along &
northwest of the Natchez Trace.

Tonight: Expect a much cooler & colder airmass as strong high
pressure builds into the region. This will lead to strong cold air
advection into the overnight hours. With the strong pressure
gradient & gusty winds into the overnight hours, expect wind chills
to fall into the teens in the north to low 20s elsewhere. Lows will
fall into the upper 20s to near freezing in the Pine Belt.
Otherwise, with some lingering deformation axis to the north & low
level moisture, models continue to indicate some potential for some
light snow flurries/grains &/or freezing drizzle mixing in across
the Delta after 00Z & spreading east-southeast while main upper low
& moisture pulls east-northeast. Expect any potential to make it
down to I-20 corridor near midnight & pull away just before daybreak
in the Golden Triangle. Right now, there are no concerns for impacts
or accumulation as it will remain very light. Only question mark is
p-type & how much ice nucleation can occur for much snow flurries or
snow grains to occur or some patchy freezing drizzle can mix in. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Scattering of MVFR to IFR ceilings due to widespread coverage of
thunderstorms are ongoing across the area. In addition, a more
organized bowing line is developing down near HKS & JAN. This line
will be around 19/13-16Z @ JAN & HKS & 19/16-19Z @ GTR, MEI, HBG &
PIB. Expect any TAF site impacted with brief IFR to LIFR ceilings
&/or visibility & gusty winds possibly near or in excess of
40-50kts as the line moves across. Most of the storms will through
each site within a couple hours after impacted. Expect conditions
to improve but MVFR ceilings to linger around. In addition,
expect gusty southerly winds around 25-30mph & gradually becoming
more westerly with some brief gusts near or in excess of 35mph in
central to eastern TAF sites ahead of the front & also in the wake
of the cold front passage. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  28  40  26 /  97  34   1   0
Meridian      65  31  42  24 /  91  25   2   0
Vicksburg     64  29  42  26 /  86  22   1   0
Hattiesburg   67  32  45  25 /  90  11   2   0
Natchez       64  29  43  27 /  87  13   1   0
Greenville    63  27  39  26 /  77  19   1   0
Greenwood     63  27  38  26 /  93  37   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DC/EC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

MSZ041-042-191015-
Sharkey MS-Yazoo MS-
338 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN YAZOO AND SOUTHERN
SHARKEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CST...

At 338 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Onward, or near Valley Park, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Holly Bluff around 350 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 9066 3292 9065 3292 9057 3277 9045
      3266 9068 3266 9092 3276 9097 3277 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 239DEG 45KT 3271 9085

TW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 AM     HAIL             6 WSW CANTON            32.58N 90.13W
01/19/2019  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR THE CHARLTON COMMUNITY ALONG
            MS 22 NEAR CANTON.

&&

DL