Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
MVFR cigs starting to develop across the eastern portions of the
area at this time. Expect to see all terminals at MVFR by 08Z. DRT
should be around 10Z. With precipitation out west could be delayed
further or not even occur. Should see a return to VFR after 16Z.
Convection will continue to be the main concern through this forecast
period. Will likely see showers through 16Z then thunderstorms into
the evening. Winds will be SE at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to
around 20 knots after 16Z. DRT winds will be SE 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Cigs/vsbys should remain VFR for the most part for the I-35 sites
this evening. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR category around
midnight tonight for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF and stay that way through
late Monday morning. Some showers are expected across these terminals
mainly by day break on Monday with a second round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms from mid to late afternoon. During that
time, cigs and vsbys should be MVFR. Winds are expected to be from
the southeast at around 10 knots for most of the forecast period with
higher gusts during thunderstorm activity.

KDRT is expected to be impacted by thunderstorm activity this
evening into the overnight hours with storms moving across or nearby
the terminal for the period. These storms are capable of producing
frequent cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
There may be a break around 07Z Through 09Z with most of the
activity to the east of the airport and VFR cigs could occur for a
short period before going back down to MVFR through mid afternoon on
Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
The current weather pattern is characterized by a large, high
amplitude trough across the western CONUS with the center of the
upper low currently situated over northern Arizona/southern Utah and
slowly progressing eastward. This has yielded southwest flow aloft
across south central Texas, which is bringing a steady stream of
Pacific moisture across Mexico and into the region, primarily focused
out west along the Rio Grande (which can be seen via GOES-16 water
vapor imagery). PWATs, as analyzed by the SPC mesoanalysis, are up to
1.7" in this area, which registers above the 90% percentile per
climatology. A few subtle perturbations embedded within the upper
level flow as well as weak forcing due to some weak positive
vorticity advection from the approaching trough, paired with this
area of ample moisture, will create the threat for heavy rainfall
this evening and overnight tonight across the Rio Grande and southern
Edwards Plateau. The SPC HREF shows a strong signal for heavy
rainfall, and single deterministic CAMs such as the HRRR and the NAM
nest also continue to suggest a locally heavy rainfall threat for
this region. As such, WPC does indeed highlight this area with a
slight risk for excessive rainfall. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has
been issued for this region and will be in effect from 7 pm tonight
through 7 am Monday.

While the focus for heavy rainfall should remain confined to the
western portions of the region, the rest of south central Texas
should see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight
tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through Wednesday morning as the region remains under the
influence of the approaching trough and eventual surface cold front.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and even some strong to
marginally severe storms are also possible. The trough axis and cold
front should move through the region on Wednesday, bringing rain
chances to an end as weak upper level ridging begins to build. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for Thursday through Saturday
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Sunday are only
expected to reach the low to mid 70s across the region.

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio (in the Pacific) will come ashore
across Baja California and is progged to be absorbed into an upper
level trough in the vicinity of the desert southwest. This feature may
approach the region as we head into next weekend, so have re-
introduced some 20 to 30 percent PoPs for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  83  68  83  63 /  40  80  60  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  84  68  84  61 /  40  80  60  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  84  68  84  62 /  50  70  60  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  80  64  80  59 /  50  80  50  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  84  65  85  66 /  60  60  20  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  82  66  81  59 /  40  80  60  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  84  67  86  64 /  50  70  40  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  85  68  83  62 /  50  70  60  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  87  70  84  63 /  30  60  60  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  85  69  84  64 /  50  70  50  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  85  70  85  65 /  50  70  50  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bandera-Edwards-
Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
403 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081115-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
403 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across
the area this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall amounts of
one to two inches are possible with isolated amounts up
to four inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rain are possible Monday into Tuesday until a front pushes
through the region Tuesday. Drier conditions are expected for
Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
932 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

TXZ185-203-080330-
Uvalde TX-Real TX-
932 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UVALDE AND REAL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 928 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms moving northeast from western Uvalde County to the
central and northeast portions of Real County. These storms are
moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey, Camp Wood, Laguna, Montell, Cline, Tuff, Garner State Park,
Rio Frio, Reagan Wells, Vance, Lost Maples State Natural Area and
Prade Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2919 10000 2923 10011 2941 10011 2962 10007
      2963 10001 2966 10003 2968 10002 2971 10005
      2972 10002 2978 10003 2980 10001 2982 10003
      2990 10000 3000 9999 2992 9969 2991 9969
      2990 9960 2982 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 195DEG 18KT 2936 10006

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
147 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ184-080715-
Edwards TX-
147 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

At 147 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Rocksprings, moving north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Edwards County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 10042 2994 10060 3029 10053 3029 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 193DEG 22KT 2999 10049