Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Dodge City, KS

724 
WWUS53 KDDC 290151 RRB
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
851 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC135-145-165-195-290201-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-180529T0215Z/
Ness KS-Trego KS-Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
851 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NESS...SOUTH CENTRAL TREGO...
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
west central Kansas.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3827 10019 3874 9993 3854 9925 3827 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 271DEG 22KT 3844 9960 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Main concern today and tonight is the severe thunderstorm
potential, which has already started. Think there are two areas of
concerns for two different types of severe hazards. An OFB is
running from central Ellis county all the way to Sherman county.
To the west, a quasi-warm front or stationary boundary extends
across portions of east-central Colorado. Am mainly concerned with
tornado potential with these two boundaries if a storm/supercell
were to interact with said boundaries. Mesoanalysis shows east
winds behind this boundary along with locally higher STP values.
So, putting this all together, for areas along and north of
Highway 96, am concerned with tornadoes and secondary hail. To
the south, higher LCL's and weaker lower level shear (weaker due
to no boundaries nearby) will favor a more hail and wind threat.
Think hail size of 2-3" is likely for initial supercells. Hail
size will lower (per LHP) later this evening through upscale
growth and higher beneficial competition of hail embryos. A wind
threat will be the main concern late this evening for much of the
rest of the forecast area as a squall line is eventually expected.
Ignoring the tornado, hail and wind threat, the central zones and
perhaps eastern zones stand to see a good chance at seeing 1-2"
of rain with the squall line if it actually develops like some of
the meso models are suggesting.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow will all depend on what
happens tonight and where the mesoscale boundaries/warm sector
ends up. EC suggests the main threat will be along and east of
Highway 283. A cooler bl along with associated lower LCL's do
suggest some tornado threat tomorrow. Best areas per warm sector
placement from the models would be across the eastern/southeastern
zones.

Left the rest of the extended as is with FB pops and temps. Warm
and dry is the long and short of it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

A scattered band of thunderstorms will move through southwest and
central Kansas through the evening hours before moving east of the
region. The main threats for severe weather will include large
hail and wind gusts to 50-55 knots at the southwest Kansas
terminals through about 02-03z. MVFR cigs can also be expected
with the thunderstorms. Conditions will be improving area-wide
after 04-06z. LLWS is also expected to occur through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  86  62  89 /  80  30  40  10
GCK  63  86  60  88 /  80  20  10  10
EHA  62  86  60  89 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  65  88  61  90 /  80  10  10  10
HYS  65  81  60  87 /  70  40  60   0
P28  69  89  65  92 /  30  20  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 /419 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough near the
Colorado border and near an old outflow boundary in northwest
Kansas this afternoon. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
damaging wind gusts may accompany the more intense thunderstorms.
Although the threat of tornadoes is not high, a tornado is
possible with any discrete supercell especially around sunset
when the low level jet develops.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop again Tuesday as an
upper level cold pool approaches western Kansas. Thunderstorms may
be ongoing Tuesday morning in northwest Kansas and will develop
southeast with time. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
heavy rain can be expected with the more intense thunderstorms,
especially near a retreating outflow boundary in south central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may occur Wednesday and
Thursday, but the probability of severe weather is low. Hot
weather will develop Friday with highs near 100 degrees especially
in the Red Hills. Active fire behavior can be expected.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 300 PM in Trego and Ness
Counties and near the Colorado border. Spotter activation may be
required farther east during the afternoon and evening as a line
of thunderstorms moves to near Highway 283 by 9 PM.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW ULYSSES           37.60N 101.37W
05/28/2018  M61 MPH          GRANT              KS   AWOS

            AWOS AT ULYSSES AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.89W
05/28/2018                   TREGO              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVEREAL SEMIS BLOWN OVER JUST WEST OF
            WAKEENEY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             4 WSW GRIGSTON          38.47N 100.78W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N UTICA               38.66N 100.17W
05/28/2018  E60 MPH          NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
757 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 S ALAMOTA            38.26N 100.34W
05/28/2018  E60 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCEVILLE        37.93N 100.72W
05/28/2018  M73 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&