Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Dodge City, KS

749 
WWUS53 KDDC 290117
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
817 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC047-055-057-069-081-083-101-135-145-290145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-180529T0145Z/
Ford KS-Finney KS-Ness KS-Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Lane KS-Gray KS-
Edwards KS-Haskell KS-
817 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...FINNEY...SOUTHERN NESS...HODGEMAN...WESTERN
PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN LANE...NORTHERN GRAY...NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 817 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles northwest of Hanston to 4 miles west of
Howell, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Gray, Cimarron, Jetmore, Pierceville, Ingalls, Burdett,
Hanston, Rozel, Charleston, Howell, Plymell and Kalvesta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. People outside should move 
to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3760 10092 3826 10084 3828 9930 3796 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 255DEG 57KT 3828 9982 3778 10025 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TATRO

773 
WWUS53 KDDC 290140
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC047-055-057-069-081-083-101-135-145-290149-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-180529T0145Z/
Ford KS-Finney KS-Ness KS-Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Lane KS-Gray KS-
Edwards KS-Haskell KS-
840 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...FINNEY...
SOUTHERN NESS...HODGEMAN...WESTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN LANE...
NORTHERN GRAY...NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...


A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Kansas.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has replaced this warning and is in 
effect for Finney, Gray, Hodgeman, Pawnee, Ford, and Edwards 
counties until 9:45 PM.

LAT...LON 3760 10092 3826 10084 3828 9930 3796 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 260DEG 18KT 3830 9969 3780 10012 

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Main concern today and tonight is the severe thunderstorm
potential, which has already started. Think there are two areas of
concerns for two different types of severe hazards. An OFB is
running from central Ellis county all the way to Sherman county.
To the west, a quasi-warm front or stationary boundary extends
across portions of east-central Colorado. Am mainly concerned with
tornado potential with these two boundaries if a storm/supercell
were to interact with said boundaries. Mesoanalysis shows east
winds behind this boundary along with locally higher STP values.
So, putting this all together, for areas along and north of
Highway 96, am concerned with tornadoes and secondary hail. To
the south, higher LCL's and weaker lower level shear (weaker due
to no boundaries nearby) will favor a more hail and wind threat.
Think hail size of 2-3" is likely for initial supercells. Hail
size will lower (per LHP) later this evening through upscale
growth and higher beneficial competition of hail embryos. A wind
threat will be the main concern late this evening for much of the
rest of the forecast area as a squall line is eventually expected.
Ignoring the tornado, hail and wind threat, the central zones and
perhaps eastern zones stand to see a good chance at seeing 1-2"
of rain with the squall line if it actually develops like some of
the meso models are suggesting.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow will all depend on what
happens tonight and where the mesoscale boundaries/warm sector
ends up. EC suggests the main threat will be along and east of
Highway 283. A cooler bl along with associated lower LCL's do
suggest some tornado threat tomorrow. Best areas per warm sector
placement from the models would be across the eastern/southeastern
zones.

Left the rest of the extended as is with FB pops and temps. Warm
and dry is the long and short of it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

A scattered band of thunderstorms will move through southwest and
central Kansas through the evening hours before moving east of the
region. The main threats for severe weather will include large
hail and wind gusts to 50-55 knots at the southwest Kansas
terminals through about 02-03z. MVFR cigs can also be expected
with the thunderstorms. Conditions will be improving area-wide
after 04-06z. LLWS is also expected to occur through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  86  62  89 /  80  30  40  10
GCK  63  86  60  88 /  80  20  10  10
EHA  62  86  60  89 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  65  88  61  90 /  80  10  10  10
HYS  65  81  60  87 /  70  40  60   0
P28  69  89  65  92 /  30  20  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 /419 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough near the
Colorado border and near an old outflow boundary in northwest
Kansas this afternoon. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
damaging wind gusts may accompany the more intense thunderstorms.
Although the threat of tornadoes is not high, a tornado is
possible with any discrete supercell especially around sunset
when the low level jet develops.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop again Tuesday as an
upper level cold pool approaches western Kansas. Thunderstorms may
be ongoing Tuesday morning in northwest Kansas and will develop
southeast with time. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
heavy rain can be expected with the more intense thunderstorms,
especially near a retreating outflow boundary in south central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may occur Wednesday and
Thursday, but the probability of severe weather is low. Hot
weather will develop Friday with highs near 100 degrees especially
in the Red Hills. Active fire behavior can be expected.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 300 PM in Trego and Ness
Counties and near the Colorado border. Spotter activation may be
required farther east during the afternoon and evening as a line
of thunderstorms moves to near Highway 283 by 9 PM.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
652 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             10 NNW FETERITA         37.29N 101.52W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 NW TREGO CENTER       38.92N 99.93W
05/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW ULYSSES           37.60N 101.37W
05/28/2018  M61 MPH          GRANT              KS   AWOS

            AWOS AT ULYSSES AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.89W
05/28/2018                   TREGO              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVEREAL SEMIS BLOWN OVER JUST WEST OF
            WAKEENEY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             4 WSW GRIGSTON          38.47N 100.78W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N UTICA               38.66N 100.17W
05/28/2018  E60 MPH          NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&