Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 28, 2018Ellis County, Trego County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this river flood warning at May 28, 2018, 8:50 PM CDT for Ellis County, Trego County, Kansas. It took effect at May 28, 2018, 9:28 PM CDT. It was in force for 27 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2018, 8:50 PM CDT (01:50 UTC)
In effect from
May 28, 2018, 9:28 PM CDT
Expired
May 30, 2018, 12:37 AM CDT
In force
27 hr
Issued by
NWS Dodge City, KS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Ellis County, KS, Trego County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Saline River (KS) near Wakeeney (WAAK1). The gauge peaked at 23.91 ft at May 29, 2018, 12:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderatemajor102005/2905/3005/31
Action stage
11 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06866900, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

268 
WGUS43 KDDC 290150
FLWDDC
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning 
National Weather Serice Dodge City KS
850 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...The National Weather Service in Dodge City, Ks has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Kansas...

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued Tuesday morning.

&&

KSC051-195-291349-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FL.W.0001.180529T0720Z-180530T0312Z/
/WAAK1.1.ER.180529T0720Z.180529T1200Z.180529T2112Z.NO/
850 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Dodge City, Ks has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* from late tonight to Tuesday evening.
* At  8:31 PM Monday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 14.4 feet by tomorrow morning.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Expect moderate lowland flooding along the 
  Saline River throughout northern Trego and Ellis Counties. Flood 
  depths may reach 2 feet or more as the river nears its crest. Some 
  roads and bridge approaches near the river will be impassable.
* * Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.5 
  feet on May 24 2016.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
9 follow-up statements
869 
WGUS43 KDDC 290237
FLWDDC
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
937 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Kansas...
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

. Very heavy rainfall that occurred over far northwest Trego county and 
points farther west was now moving downstream in the Saline River across
northern Trego County. Moderate flooding is expected along the river but
there is some potential for major flooding to occur depending on how soon
the rain ends across that area. This flood warning may be updated with 
higher crests if that appears to be the case.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued early Tuesday morning.


&&

KSC051-195-291436-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.180529T0228Z-180530T0032Z/
/WAAK1.2.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0600Z.180529T1832Z.NO/
937 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  9:15 PM Monday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.8 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Expect moderate lowland flooding along the 
  Saline River throughout northern Trego and Ellis Counties. Flood 
  depths may reach 2 feet or more as the river nears its crest. Some 
  roads and bridge approaches near the river will be impassable.
* * Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.5 
  feet on May 24 2016.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
763 
WGUS43 KDDC 290304
FLWDDC
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning 
National Weather Serice Dodge City KS
1004 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Record severity for the
following rivers in Kansas...
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

. The Saline River continues to rise rapidly and is now expected to 
crest near 21 feet. This is a record crest for this location.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued early Tuesday morning.


&&

KSC051-195-291503-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0108Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0600Z.180529T1908Z.NR/
1004 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Observed flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At  9:46 PM Monday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.0 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Prepare for near-record flooding of 6 feet 
  or more along the Saline River lowlands in northern Trego and Ellis
  Counties as the river moves well out of its channel onto the 
  floodplain. Flooding will be comparable to that last seen on june 
  17, 1957, when the Saline River near Wakeeney crested at 19.4 feet.
* * Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 19.4 
  feet on June 17 1957.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
908 
WGUS83 KDDC 290342
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1042 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

. Water levels on the Saline River in northern Trego county continue
to rise rapidly. While some uncertainty as to the magnitude of the crest
remains, the river is now expected to crest at a record flood level
of 24.8 feet. This will result in floodwaters as much as much as 11 feet
deep along the Saline River lowlands in northern Trego and Ellis counties!


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued early Tuesday morning.


&&

KSC051-195-291542-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0200Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0600Z.180529T2000Z.NR/
1042 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At 10:31 PM Monday the stage was 22.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
387 
WGUS83 KDDC 290650
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

. Record flood waters have been observed on the Saline River in northern Trego county. However, the river looks to be at near crest stage and is expected to begin dropping later this morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage sometime Tuesday evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued ***TIME OF NEXT ISSUANCE***


&&

KSC051-195-291849-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0830Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0230Z.NR/
150 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At  1:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
344 
WGUS83 KDDC 290656
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas..
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

.Record flood waters have been observed on the Saline River in
northern Trego county. However, the river looks to be at near
crest stage and is expected to begin falling later this 
morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage
sometime Tuesday evening.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued late this morning.


&&

KSC051-195-291854-
/O.CON.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0830Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0230Z.NR/
156 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At  1:46 AM Tuesday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
683 
WGUS43 KDDC 291518
FLWDDC
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning 
National Weather Serice Dodge City KS
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

. The Saline River is at 18.5 feet and is falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued later today.


&&

KSC051-195-300317-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0900Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0300Z.NR/
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.* At 10:01 AM Tuesday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Prepare for near-record flooding of 6 feet 
  or more along the Saline River lowlands in northern Trego and Ellis
  Counties as the river moves well out of its channel onto the 
  floodplain. Flooding will be comparable to that last seen on june 
  17, 1957, when the Saline River near Wakeeney crested at 19.4 feet.
* * Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 19.0 
  feet on July 2 1962.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$

KSC051-300317-
/O.ROU.KDDC.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ELLK1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Forecast information for
  Big Creek At Ellis.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...The river is forecast below flood stage with a maximum 
  value of 12.5 feet tomorrow morning.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 12.5 feet tomorrow morning.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3902 9974 3894 9942 3888 9942 3888 9974


$$

KSC051-300317-
/O.ROU.KDDC.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HYSK1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Forecast information for
  Big Creek Near Hays 2SSE.
* At  9:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 12.9 feet Thursday morning.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3894 9942 3889 9931 3884 9926 3880 9926
      3888 9942                       

$$

KSC195-291548-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180530T0000Z/
/ARNK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Expect minor north bank flooding of up to 
  one foot along the Smoky Hill River from the confluence of 
  Hackberry Creek and the Smoky Hill River to east of U.S. Highway 
  283.
* * Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 6.5 
  feet on August 3 1948.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3883 10014 3883 9989 3877 9989 3877 10014


$$

KSC051-300317-
/O.ROU.KDDC.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCSK1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1018 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Forecast information for
  Smoky Hill River Below Schoenchen 2E.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.


&&
   
LAT...LON 3881 9971 3875 9929 3875 9905 3870 9905
      3870 9929 3876 9971             

$$
999 
WGUS83 KDDC 292001
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas..
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

.Runoff from extremely heavy rainfall Monday evening from Gove County across
northwest Trego County into Graham County produced record flooding on the 
Saline River in northern Trego County. Flooding will continue from north of
Wakeeney downstream across northern Trego and Ellis Counties this afternoon
 and tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued around 8 PM.

&&

KSC051-195-300802-
/O.CON.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T0900Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0300Z.NR/
301 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At  2:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Expect major flooding of 4 feet or more 
  along the Saline River lowlands in northern Trego and Ellis 
  Counties. Some roads along the Saline River will be impassable. 
  Basement flooding may occur in some houses along the Saline River 
  in these counties.
* this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 feet on September 
18 1995.

&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
729 
WGUS83 KDDC 300124
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
0830 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

(optional) general hydrometeorological synopsis

.Nearly unprecidented flooding from heavy rainfall on Monday evening from 
Gove County across northwest Trego County into Graham County produced record 
flooding on the Saline River in northern Trego County. This record flooding 
will continue from north of Wakeeney downstream across northern Trego and Ellis 
Counties through midnight, and tomorrow morning for northern Ellis County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.

The next statement will be issued 2 am.


&&

KSC051-195-301200-
/O.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T1200Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0600Z.NR/
824 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At  7:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Expect moderate lowland flooding along the 
  Saline River throughout northern Trego and Ellis Counties. Flood 
  depths may reach 2 feet or more as the river nears its crest. Some 
  roads and bridge approaches near the river will be impassable.
* this crest compares to a previous crest of 15.5 feet on May 24 
2016.
&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$
119 
WGUS83 KDDC 300537
FLSDDC
  
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1237 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...

  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N affecting Ellis and Trego 
  Counties.

.The Saline River has fallen below flood stage and will continue to
fall overnight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 Safety message...

Do not drive through flowing water or go around barricades. Nearly 
half of all flood fatalities are vehicle related. Turn around don't 
drown.

Continue to monitor noaa all hazards radio or commercial broadcasts 
for further information.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at: 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ddc (lowercase) for 
additional hydrologic information.


&&

KSC051-195-300607-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180530T1200Z/
/WAAK1.3.ER.180529T0148Z.180529T0500Z.180530T0355Z.NR/
1237 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Saline River Near Wakeeney 5N.
* At 12:16 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 10:55 PM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 6.9 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of farmland and 
  pastureland adjacent to the saline river in northern Trego and 
  Ellis Counties.
* this crest compares to a previous crest of 13.1 feet on July 9 
1993.
&&
   
LAT...LON 3913 10014 3913 9905 3904 9905 3904 10014


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 28, 6:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 6:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Main concern today and tonight is the severe thunderstorm
potential, which has already started. Think there are two areas of
concerns for two different types of severe hazards. An OFB is
running from central Ellis county all the way to Sherman county.
To the west, a quasi-warm front or stationary boundary extends
across portions of east-central Colorado. Am mainly concerned with
tornado potential with these two boundaries if a storm/supercell
were to interact with said boundaries. Mesoanalysis shows east
winds behind this boundary along with locally higher STP values.
So, putting this all together, for areas along and north of
Highway 96, am concerned with tornadoes and secondary hail. To
the south, higher LCL's and weaker lower level shear (weaker due
to no boundaries nearby) will favor a more hail and wind threat.
Think hail size of 2-3" is likely for initial supercells. Hail
size will lower (per LHP) later this evening through upscale
growth and higher beneficial competition of hail embryos. A wind
threat will be the main concern late this evening for much of the
rest of the forecast area as a squall line is eventually expected.
Ignoring the tornado, hail and wind threat, the central zones and
perhaps eastern zones stand to see a good chance at seeing 1-2"
of rain with the squall line if it actually develops like some of
the meso models are suggesting.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow will all depend on what
happens tonight and where the mesoscale boundaries/warm sector
ends up. EC suggests the main threat will be along and east of
Highway 283. A cooler bl along with associated lower LCL's do
suggest some tornado threat tomorrow. Best areas per warm sector
placement from the models would be across the eastern/southeastern
zones.

Left the rest of the extended as is with FB pops and temps. Warm
and dry is the long and short of it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

A scattered band of thunderstorms will move through southwest and
central Kansas through the evening hours before moving east of the
region. The main threats for severe weather will include large
hail and wind gusts to 50-55 knots at the southwest Kansas
terminals through about 02-03z. MVFR cigs can also be expected
with the thunderstorms. Conditions will be improving area-wide
after 04-06z. LLWS is also expected to occur through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  86  62  89 /  80  30  40  10
GCK  63  86  60  88 /  80  20  10  10
EHA  62  86  60  89 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  65  88  61  90 /  80  10  10  10
HYS  65  81  60  87 /  70  40  60   0
P28  69  89  65  92 /  30  20  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard
Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 5:19 AM CDT, 15 hours 31 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 /419 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough near the
Colorado border and near an old outflow boundary in northwest
Kansas this afternoon. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
damaging wind gusts may accompany the more intense thunderstorms.
Although the threat of tornadoes is not high, a tornado is
possible with any discrete supercell especially around sunset
when the low level jet develops.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop again Tuesday as an
upper level cold pool approaches western Kansas. Thunderstorms may
be ongoing Tuesday morning in northwest Kansas and will develop
southeast with time. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
heavy rain can be expected with the more intense thunderstorms,
especially near a retreating outflow boundary in south central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may occur Wednesday and
Thursday, but the probability of severe weather is low. Hot
weather will develop Friday with highs near 100 degrees especially
in the Red Hills. Active fire behavior can be expected.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 300 PM in Trego and Ness
Counties and near the Colorado border. Spotter activation may be
required farther east during the afternoon and evening as a line
of thunderstorms moves to near Highway 283 by 9 PM.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 28, 7:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAKEENEY                39.02N 99.89W
05/28/2018                   TREGO              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVEREAL SEMIS BLOWN OVER JUST WEST OF
            WAKEENEY.

&&
Local storm report, May 28, 7:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             4 WSW GRIGSTON          38.47N 100.78W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

&&
Local storm report, May 28, 7:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N UTICA               38.66N 100.17W
05/28/2018  E60 MPH          NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&
Local storm report, May 28, 7:57 PM CDT, 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
757 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 S ALAMOTA            38.26N 100.34W
05/28/2018  E60 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&
Local storm report, May 28, 8:11 PM CDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCEVILLE        37.93N 100.72W
05/28/2018  M73 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&
Local storm report, May 28, 8:24 PM CDT, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
824 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW DIGHTON           38.47N 100.53W
05/28/2018                   LANE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GRAIN BINS BLOWN OFF FOUNDATIONS AND INTO A
            PILE.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 7:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Gray, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness, Scott55 min
May 28, 7:11 PM CDTTornado WarningDDCLane10 min
May 28, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Gray, Haskell46 min
May 28, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCGrant, Kearny, Stevens52 min
May 28, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Trego50 min
May 28, 7:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness, Pawnee and 3 more53 min
May 28, 7:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Finney, Ford, Gray, Haskell, Hodgeman and 3 more54 min
May 28, 7:56 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningDDCLane, Scott3 hr
May 28, 8:03 PM CDTTornado WarningDDCHodgeman, Ness12 min
May 28, 8:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Grant, Haskell, Seward, Stevens53 min
May 28, 8:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Ness, Rush, Trego39 min
May 28, 8:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCNess, Pawnee, Rush, Trego29 min
May 28, 8:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman, Pawnee67 min
May 28, 8:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Ness, Pawnee, Rush, Trego55 min
May 28, 9:22 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDDCEllis, Trego6 hr
May 28, 9:25 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCGray, Haskell, Meade35 min
May 28, 9:41 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCSeward34 min
May 28, 10:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCClark, Meade29 min
May 28, 10:12 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCPawnee33 min
May 28, 10:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCSeward45 min
May 28, 10:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCClark50 min
May 29, 4:21 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningDDCTrego15 hr
May 29, 3:22 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCClark38 min
May 29, 3:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCHodgeman38 min
May 29, 3:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman47 min
May 29, 4:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCClark58 min
May 29, 4:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Comanche53 min
May 29, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFord, Hodgeman, Ness47 min
May 29, 4:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCHodgeman, Ness, Pawnee, Rush45 min
May 29, 4:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFord, Gray, Hodgeman54 min
May 29, 4:43 PM CDTTornado WarningDDCFord, Gray21 min
May 29, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFord, Gray54 min
May 29, 4:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCBarber, Clark, Comanche51 min
May 29, 5:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Ford, Kiowa43 min
May 29, 5:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee, Rush48 min
May 29, 5:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCTrego55 min
May 29, 5:32 PM CDTTornado WarningDDCFord16 min
May 29, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Kiowa32 min
May 29, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFord45 min
May 29, 5:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Ford, Kiowa, Pawnee, Stafford43 min
May 29, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFord, Kiowa46 min
May 29, 6:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDDCPawnee60 min
May 29, 6:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Comanche, Ford, Kiowa55 min
May 29, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Trego48 min
May 29, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Pawnee, Pratt, Stafford64 min
May 29, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Kiowa, Pratt48 min
May 29, 6:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis43 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.