Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 490

October 1, 20174 counties in Colorado; 22 counties in Kansas; 22 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 1, 2017, 2:25 PM MDT for 4 counties in Colorado; 22 counties in Kansas; 22 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 1, 2017, 2:25 PM MDT (20:25 UTC)
Expired
Oct 1, 2017, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 48 counties

Cheyenne County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Smith County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Buffalo County, NE, Chase County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Valley County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

43 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 3:10 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma50 min
Oct 1, 3:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGraham, Sheridan45 min
Oct 1, 3:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDLogan, Sheridan, Thomas49 min
Oct 1, 3:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDYuma27 min
Oct 1, 3:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDDecatur, Graham, Sheridan, Thomas49 min
Oct 1, 4:00 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDYuma30 min
Oct 1, 4:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFChase38 min
Oct 1, 4:22 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFBlaine, Custer, Loup38 min
Oct 1, 4:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDDundy, Hitchcock30 min
Oct 1, 4:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster44 min
Oct 1, 4:35 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOULogan, Phillips, Sedgwick30 min
Oct 1, 4:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFChase, Hayes, Lincoln, Perkins38 min
Oct 1, 4:43 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDGraham, Norton, Sheridan32 min
Oct 1, 4:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster, Lincoln, Logan67 min
Oct 1, 4:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGraham, Norton66 min
Oct 1, 5:12 PM MDTTornado WarningGLDGraham, Norton33 min
Oct 1, 5:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFFrontier, Hayes, Keith, Lincoln, Perkins47 min
Oct 1, 5:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster, Loup50 min
Oct 1, 5:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Rooks41 min
Oct 1, 5:38 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster52 min
Oct 1, 5:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGraham, Norton31 min
Oct 1, 5:46 PM MDTTornado WarningGIDPhillips, Rooks44 min
Oct 1, 5:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFFrontier, Lincoln49 min
Oct 1, 6:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster, Garfield, Holt, Loup45 min
Oct 1, 6:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Smith42 min
Oct 1, 6:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFFrontier, Hayes14 min
Oct 1, 6:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDDawson43 min
Oct 1, 6:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCuster, Frontier, Lincoln50 min
Oct 1, 6:43 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningLBFCuster, Loup6 hr
Oct 1, 6:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Smith49 min
Oct 1, 7:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGreeley, Logan, Wichita30 min
Oct 1, 7:22 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDDawson, Gosper38 min
Oct 1, 7:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGreeley, Logan, Wichita63 min
Oct 1, 7:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFFrontier32 min
Oct 1, 7:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Smith38 min
Oct 1, 7:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDBuffalo, Dawson, Gosper, Phelps51 min
Oct 1, 7:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFFrontier15 min
Oct 1, 7:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDGosper, Phelps47 min
Oct 1, 8:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGove, Logan, Wichita25 min
Oct 1, 8:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDBuffalo, Kearney, Phelps44 min
Oct 1, 8:36 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDDecatur, Graham, Norton, Sheridan, Thomas39 min
Oct 1, 8:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDFranklin, Harlan, Phelps28 min
Oct 1, 9:12 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDFranklin, Harlan33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2017-10-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 280 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2017-10-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
280 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1058 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

853 
WWUS20 KWNS 012023
SEL0  
SPC WW 012023
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far eastern Colorado
  Western Kansas
  Southwest and west-central Nebraska

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase and intensify across the
Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska border region through late afternoon,
with additional development also expected a bit farther south across
west-central/northwest Kansas. Supercell thunderstorms capable of
large hail are expected through early evening along with the
possibility of a couple of tornadoes. Damaging winds may also become
an increasing concern this evening as storms tend to cluster as they
spread northeastward into Nebraska and far northern Kansas.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of North Platte NE
to 80 miles southwest of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 1:39 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan and 10 more66 min
Oct 1, 5:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Logan and 10 more2 hr
Oct 1, 5:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Antelope, Boone, Clay, Fillmore, Garfield and 18 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2017Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2017Tornado Watches in Colorado, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.