Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS North Platte, NE

094 
WWUS53 KLBF 020030
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
730 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEC063-111-020045-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-171002T0045Z/
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
730 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 730 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near North Platte Airport to near Maxwell to Curtis,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Curtis, Brady, Maxwell, Wellfleet, Moorefield,
Stockville, Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, North Platte Airport,
Keith, Maywood, Cottonwood Canyon State Wildlife Management Area,
Hansen Memorial Reserve State Wildlife Management Area, Jeffrey
Canyon State Wildlife Management Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 174 and 205.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 33 and 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4138 10059 4112 10031 4077 10023 4070 10023
      4070 10021 4061 10019 4041 10074 4070 10077
      4120 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 222DEG 15KT 4109 10070 4105 10056 4065 10051 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Updated forecast to add north central zones in severe thunderstorm
watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Strong forcing now moving into western Wyoming and Colorado per
water vapor imagery. This will quickly overspread western and
southwest Nebraska this evening, and expect rapid development of
thunderstorms along a pacific cold front that extends from west of
O'Neill to near Ogallala. This boundary will remain nearly
stationary this evening, and we will have to watch areas of
southwest Nebraska closely near the front for possible isolated
tornado development. Backed near surface flow will increase this
evening, and if a storm can remain discrete near the boundary,
parameters are decent for isolated tornado development. Recent runs
of the HRRR model suggests that many updrafts could limit the
potential for storms to remain discrete. This would pose more of a
wind and hail risk and less of a tornado threat. Front should clear
the area by midnight, with only a few lingering rain showers behind
the front.

Surface low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado Monday,
which will stall the cold front just to our southeast during the
morning. The front will actually drift back northward into the
southeast portion of the area during the afternoon. Mid level
instability will begin to increase by late afternoon as warm air
advection and southerly low level jet increase. This will set the s
stage for a round of elevated strong thunderstorm activity Monday
night. As far as rainfall during the day Monday, expecting it to be
scattered at best, but cannot rule out with persistent mid level
warm air advection and isentropic lift through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Both the NAM and GFS indicate the h850mb front will lift back north
toward Ncntl Neb Monday night. 50-60kt h850-700mb winds produce
strong moisture advection and the NAM indicates h800mb CAPE around
3000J/KG with strong shear aloft. The environment is generally post
frontal suggesting a high potential for elevated thunderstorms
capable of hail, perhaps large at times. The forecast carries a
definite POP for showers and thunderstorms. K-indices are expected
to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s Celsius.

A similar situation develops Wednesday with a warm front lifting
back north in response to an approaching upper level wave. The
forcing at the lower levels is weaker suggesting a less widespread
rain event affecting areas south of highway 2.

The last potential rain event develops Thursday night and Friday as
the last of the upper level energy across the Wrn U.S. lifts east
through the Plains. The models have a large range of tracks for the
upper low and there has been a whole lot of wobbling day to day with
each model forecast.

Blended model data plus bias correction was the basis for the
temperature forecast. The coolest weather is expected Wednesday; the
result of 1030mb Canadian high pressure ridging southward through
the high plains. Highs in the 50s are expected area-wide Wednesday.
Otherwise highs in the 60s are expected until Saturday. Warmer
weather returns Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

A stormy late afternoon and evening is expected across western and
north central Nebraska. Expect thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon across the western high plains, and then move east
across the area this evening. Temporary MVFR conditions are likely
as the storms cross the area. Winds will be locally gusty to 40
kts as the storms pass as well. VFR and light winds are expected
by Monday morning all areas.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 /246 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
across a large portion of western and north central Nebraska
this evening. The main area of concern for severe storms is south
of a line from Chambers, to Thedford, to Big Springs.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards,
however a tornado cannot be ruled out especially along and south
of a line from Broken Bow, to Stapleton, to Ogallala

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorms will be possible once again on Monday night. A few
strong storms with hail are possible along and south of a line
from Springview, to Mullen, to Big Springs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
530 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             5 SW CHAMPION           40.41N 101.78W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW CHAMPION           40.41N 101.78W
10/01/2017  E60.00 MPH       CHASE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             IMPERIAL                40.52N 101.64W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             7 S ARNOLD              41.32N 100.19W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S ARNOLD              41.32N 100.19W
10/01/2017  E60 MPH          CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     11 SW HAYES CENTER      40.40N 101.17W
10/01/2017                   HAYES              NE   STORM CHASER

            RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A BRIEF SMALL FUNNEL
            THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             10 ESE ANSELMO          41.56N 99.69W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ