Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Upper trough and associated surface cold front will result in
thunderstorm chances tonight. Best coverage will probably be in
northeast Colorado and east along the Kansas-Nebraska border area,
with more isolated coverage elsewhere. However, environment is
supportive of supercells, with strong deep layer shear and
instability in place, so expecting a large hail and tornado
threat, especially with discrete storms. Convection will result in
cold front surging south across the forecast area this evening
with a brief period of gusty north winds immediately following
frontal passage, then becoming light overnight. Storm chances will
continue through the overnight in eastern area, but severe threat
will end by 06z. Lows will range from the lower 40s in northeast
Colorado to the upper 50s in north central Kansas.

After a lull in precipitation chances Monday morning, expect to
see redevelopment Monday afternoon. Front will stall out and try
to return northward into far southern parts of the area, roughly
along a Hill City to Tribune line by 00z. All of the surface based
instability will be south of the front, so severe threat will be
limited to those areas through 00z. North of the front, upslope
flow into the higher terrain will result in scattered high based
storms in northeast Colorado by late afternoon. These storms will
likely not be severe due to limited instability. There will be a
large temperature gradient across the front...with highs ranging
from the lower 60s in northeast Colorado to around 80 in the Hill
City to Tribune areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Precipitation chances persist throughout much of the long term
period with below to near normal temperatures.

An upper trough digs into the northwestern CONUS at the start of the
period, with ridging to the east, placing the region under southwest
flow aloft. A front stalled across the High Plains continues to be
the focus for showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Sufficient
instability and ample shear will allow the potential for a few
strong to severe storms to last into the evening hours.

The boundary wavers across the area through at least midweek as some
moisture filters in, keeping good chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. By Thursday, the upper low in the
northwestern CONUS travels northeast into Canada as a new low forms
in the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. This next system
traverses the northern Plains Friday into Saturday, sending a cold
front through the High Plains and increasing precipitation chances.
Conditions dry out over the weekend behind the frontal passage.

There is still uncertainty in the forecast, especially regarding the
position of the front throughout the week as well as how far south
the late week low will travel. Will continue to monitor and refine
details as guidance comes into better agreement.

High temperatures are cooler in the mid 50s to upper 60s through
Friday. This is followed by a return to the 70s during the weekend.
Lows are generally in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Main aviation concern will be thunderstorm chances at both KGLD
and KMCK during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front moving out of
northeast Colorado by mid afternoon, then move into the remainder
of the area this evening. Storms will move rapidly east through
southwest Nebraska and may be accompanied by brief damaging wind
gusts and hail as it moves near KMCK this evening. Further
south...storms will be more isolated in northwest Kansas, so will
only mention a VCTS for KGLD for the time being. However, there is
also a risk for wind/hail at KGLD if a storm should develop. VFR
will return to both terminals by late evening through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1046 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1046 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017 /1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening mainly for locales in northeast Colorado and southwest
Nebraska.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening in the remainder of the area.

Large hail...damaging wind gusts and even an isolated tornado or two
are possible in any storms that do develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

For Monday into Tuesday...isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible for the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
346 PM MDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             2 N OAKLEY              39.15N 100.85W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT EXIT 70 ON I-70
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SELMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
351 PM MDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             SELDEN                  39.54N 100.57W
10/01/2017  M1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HILL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             E HOXIE                 39.36N 100.44W
10/01/2017  M2.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER HALF MILE EAST AND NORTH OF HOXIE REPORTED 2 INCH
            HAIL.

&&

SELMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             1 E HOXIE               39.36N 100.42W
10/01/2017  M2.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO 2.25 INCH. US-24 IS HAIL COVERED AND NEARLY
            IMPASSABLE. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SELMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             5 E HOXIE               39.36N 100.35W
10/01/2017  M2.50 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SELMORE