Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS North Platte, NE

October 1, 2017Frontier County, Hayes County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 1, 2017, 7:27 PM CDT for Frontier County, Hayes County, Nebraska. It was in force for 14 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 1, 2017, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired: Oct 1, 2017, 7:41 PM CDT
In force: 14 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Frontier County, NE, Hayes County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 1, 3:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 825 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1777 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 7.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

835 
WUUS53 KLBF 020027
SVRLBF
NEC063-085-020115-
/O.NEW.KLBF.SV.W.0257.171002T0027Z-171002T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
727 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Frontier County in southwestern Nebraska...
  Southeastern Hayes County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 815 PM CDT

* At 727 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of
  Hayes Center, moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  west central Frontier and southeastern Hayes Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4038 10095 4055 10097 4069 10077 4041 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 241DEG 19KT 4053 10080 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDC

1 follow-up statement

446 
WWUS53 KLBF 020041
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
741 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEC063-085-020051-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-171002T0115Z/
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-
741 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL FRONTIER AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4038 10095 4055 10097 4069 10077 4041 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 241DEG 19KT 4036 10119 

$$

CDC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 1, 6:43 PM CDT, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 6:43 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Updated forecast to add north central zones in severe thunderstorm
watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Strong forcing now moving into western Wyoming and Colorado per
water vapor imagery. This will quickly overspread western and
southwest Nebraska this evening, and expect rapid development of
thunderstorms along a pacific cold front that extends from west of
O'Neill to near Ogallala. This boundary will remain nearly
stationary this evening, and we will have to watch areas of
southwest Nebraska closely near the front for possible isolated
tornado development. Backed near surface flow will increase this
evening, and if a storm can remain discrete near the boundary,
parameters are decent for isolated tornado development. Recent runs
of the HRRR model suggests that many updrafts could limit the
potential for storms to remain discrete. This would pose more of a
wind and hail risk and less of a tornado threat. Front should clear
the area by midnight, with only a few lingering rain showers behind
the front.

Surface low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado Monday,
which will stall the cold front just to our southeast during the
morning. The front will actually drift back northward into the
southeast portion of the area during the afternoon. Mid level
instability will begin to increase by late afternoon as warm air
advection and southerly low level jet increase. This will set the s
stage for a round of elevated strong thunderstorm activity Monday
night. As far as rainfall during the day Monday, expecting it to be
scattered at best, but cannot rule out with persistent mid level
warm air advection and isentropic lift through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Both the NAM and GFS indicate the h850mb front will lift back north
toward Ncntl Neb Monday night. 50-60kt h850-700mb winds produce
strong moisture advection and the NAM indicates h800mb CAPE around
3000J/KG with strong shear aloft. The environment is generally post
frontal suggesting a high potential for elevated thunderstorms
capable of hail, perhaps large at times. The forecast carries a
definite POP for showers and thunderstorms. K-indices are expected
to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s Celsius.

A similar situation develops Wednesday with a warm front lifting
back north in response to an approaching upper level wave. The
forcing at the lower levels is weaker suggesting a less widespread
rain event affecting areas south of highway 2.

The last potential rain event develops Thursday night and Friday as
the last of the upper level energy across the Wrn U.S. lifts east
through the Plains. The models have a large range of tracks for the
upper low and there has been a whole lot of wobbling day to day with
each model forecast.

Blended model data plus bias correction was the basis for the
temperature forecast. The coolest weather is expected Wednesday; the
result of 1030mb Canadian high pressure ridging southward through
the high plains. Highs in the 50s are expected area-wide Wednesday.
Otherwise highs in the 60s are expected until Saturday. Warmer
weather returns Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

A stormy late afternoon and evening is expected across western and
north central Nebraska. Expect thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon across the western high plains, and then move east
across the area this evening. Temporary MVFR conditions are likely
as the storms cross the area. Winds will be locally gusty to 40
kts as the storms pass as well. VFR and light winds are expected
by Monday morning all areas.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 1, 3:46 PM CDT, 3 hours 41 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
346 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 /246 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
across a large portion of western and north central Nebraska
this evening. The main area of concern for severe storms is south
of a line from Chambers, to Thedford, to Big Springs.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards,
however a tornado cannot be ruled out especially along and south
of a line from Broken Bow, to Stapleton, to Ogallala

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorms will be possible once again on Monday night. A few
strong storms with hail are possible along and south of a line
from Springview, to Mullen, to Big Springs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 1, 5:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             IMPERIAL                40.52N 101.64W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JGOMEZ

Local storm report, Oct 1, 6:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             7 S ARNOLD              41.32N 100.19W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S ARNOLD              41.32N 100.19W
10/01/2017  E60 MPH          CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

JGOMEZ

Local storm report, Oct 1, 6:28 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     11 SW HAYES CENTER      40.40N 101.17W
10/01/2017                   HAYES              NE   STORM CHASER

            RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A BRIEF SMALL FUNNEL
            THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

&&

JGOMEZ

Local storm report, Oct 1, 6:41 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             10 ESE ANSELMO          41.56N 99.69W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

Local storm report, Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 S NORTH PLATTE       40.99N 100.77W
10/01/2017  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SNIVELY

Local storm report, Oct 1, 7:16 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
716 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             CURTIS                  40.63N 100.51W
10/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

JGOMEZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 1, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Custer, Garfield, Holt, Loup	45 min
Oct 1, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Custer, Frontier, Lincoln	50 min
Oct 1, 7:43 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LBF	Custer, Loup	6 hr
Oct 1, 7:56 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Frontier, Hayes, Lincoln	3 hr
Oct 1, 8:04 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Garfield, Holt, Loup	3 hr
Oct 1, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Holt	46 min
Oct 1, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier	32 min
Oct 1, 8:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier	15 min
Oct 2, 10:04 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LBF	Custer, Frontier, Hayes, Lincoln, Logan	17 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.