Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

An active weather pattern is expected across the local area
through the short term periods. With clearing to our west this
afternoon...instability has been building ahead of an approaching
cold front. Currently this front extends from near O'Neill
Nebraska southwest into eastern Colorado. Can already see some
cumulus starting to develop along the boundary...although nothing
has yet to really take off. That said...with plenty of
instability...effective shear values of 35 to 40 kts...and
forcing from the front...think that it is only a matter of time
before strong convection begins to initiate.

With the aforementioned parameters...have no trouble imagining
that organized convection will develop...with the potential for
large hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...as well as an
isolated tornado or two. Will continue to monitor...but think that
this convection will initiate to our west around 4 PM or 5
PM...making it to our western fringes by early evening...and
spreading east across the forecast area during the mid evening
through overnight hours. Short term model guidance is in fair
agreement with this...with both the HRRR/RAP developing a line of
thunderstorms and taking it east later this evening. With a
developing LLJ on the warm side of this boundary...expect
convection to persist through much of the overnight hours...but
with the best potential for severe storms coming primarily before
midnight.

With the cold front expected to stall across the local area
tomorrow...expect a fairly good temperature gradient to develop by
afternoon...with highs in the lower 60s forecast for our
north...and mid 80s forecast across out southeast. This front
should also become a focal point for convection during the late
afternoon and evening hours...with another chance for strong or
marginally severe thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow. While
severe potential does not look as great tomorrow...expect at least
the potential for marginally severe hail and 60 mph winds gusts
with the strongest storms through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun
Oct 1 2017

Continued unsettled weather is expected through much of the
extended periods as a cold front meanders across the local area.
This should keep temperatures near or slightly below
normal...with multiple chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
across parts of the local area...although severe weather appears
unlikely at this time. The main frontal boundary will eventually
shift southeast of the local area by next weekend...with dry
conditions and a return to above normal temperatures returning
next Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Scattered severe thunderstorms across western KS and NE will
continue eastward into the evening, eventually impacting both TAF
sites, but also gradually decreasing in intensity.

The HRRR model is handling the ongoing convection very well, so I
have leaned on it heavily for this TAF issuance. The HRRR fills
the ongoing storms into a well defined line that moves
southeastward. This makes sense given the increasing low-level
jet. As such I have included a brief period of prevailing TS at
both sites.

Some LLWS is also expected before the boundary passes through the
area tonight. Behind this boundary, we could see cloud ceilings
drop into the MVFR category into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021930-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe thunderstorms
will between 6 pm and midnight...and primarily west of highway
281. The main severe weather threats include hail to the size of
Tennis balls...70 mph winds...as well as an isolated tornado or
two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There are multiple chances for thunderstorms across the local
area through the middle of the upcoming work week. The best chance
for any strong or severe thunderstorms will be along a cold
front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected for areas mainly west of highway
281 later this afternoon or evening. Any reports of large
hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds would be
very much appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
513 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEZ082-012245-
Furnas NE-
513 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norcatur, or 12 miles east of Oberlin, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Arapahoe, Holbrook, Wilsonville and Hendley.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 9989 4000 9988 4000 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 212DEG 38KT 3986 10030

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

KSZ005-017-012345-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROOKS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm near
Bogue, or near Hill City, moving east at 50 mph.

Tennis ball size hail and winds in excess of 70 mph will be possible
with this storm. This storm is also capable of producing tornadoes.

People in northern Rooks and southwestern Phillips Counties should
monitor the weather situation closely.  A warning may be needed if
the storm maintains its intensity and moves into the area.  Be ready
to seek shelter if severe weather threatens.

LAT...LON 3957 9960 3957 9963 3967 9963 3973 9921
      3939 9913 3936 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 255DEG 46KT 3942 9974

Wesely

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