Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Hastings, NE

123 
WWUS53 KGID 020232
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
932 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEC181-020242-
/O.CAN.KGID.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-171002T0300Z/
Webster NE-
932 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4006 9815 4006 9825 4016 9824 4033 9800
      4028 9785 4013 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 238DEG 33KT 4012 9817 

$$

NEC129-020300-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-171002T0300Z/
Nuckolls NE-
932 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL NUCKOLLS COUNTY...

At 932 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bostwick, or 34
miles south of Hastings, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Nelson, Ruskin, Oak and Nora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 9815 4006 9825 4016 9824 4033 9800
      4028 9785 4013 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 238DEG 33KT 4012 9817 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Wesely

310 
WWUS53 KGID 020250
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
950 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEC129-020300-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-171002T0300Z/
Nuckolls NE-
950 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY...

At 949 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oak, or 32 
miles northwest of Belleville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9802 4028 9806 4033 9800 4028 9785
      4017 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 238DEG 33KT 4020 9800 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Wesely

707 
WWUS53 KGID 020253
SVSGID

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
953 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEC129-020303-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-171002T0300Z/
Nuckolls NE-
953 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4021 9802 4028 9806 4033 9800 4028 9785
      4017 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 238DEG 33KT 4022 9797 

$$

Wesely

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

An active weather pattern is expected across the local area
through the short term periods. With clearing to our west this
afternoon...instability has been building ahead of an approaching
cold front. Currently this front extends from near O'Neill
Nebraska southwest into eastern Colorado. Can already see some
cumulus starting to develop along the boundary...although nothing
has yet to really take off. That said...with plenty of
instability...effective shear values of 35 to 40 kts...and
forcing from the front...think that it is only a matter of time
before strong convection begins to initiate.

With the aforementioned parameters...have no trouble imagining
that organized convection will develop...with the potential for
large hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...as well as an
isolated tornado or two. Will continue to monitor...but think that
this convection will initiate to our west around 4 PM or 5
PM...making it to our western fringes by early evening...and
spreading east across the forecast area during the mid evening
through overnight hours. Short term model guidance is in fair
agreement with this...with both the HRRR/RAP developing a line of
thunderstorms and taking it east later this evening. With a
developing LLJ on the warm side of this boundary...expect
convection to persist through much of the overnight hours...but
with the best potential for severe storms coming primarily before
midnight.

With the cold front expected to stall across the local area
tomorrow...expect a fairly good temperature gradient to develop by
afternoon...with highs in the lower 60s forecast for our
north...and mid 80s forecast across out southeast. This front
should also become a focal point for convection during the late
afternoon and evening hours...with another chance for strong or
marginally severe thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow. While
severe potential does not look as great tomorrow...expect at least
the potential for marginally severe hail and 60 mph winds gusts
with the strongest storms through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun
Oct 1 2017

Continued unsettled weather is expected through much of the
extended periods as a cold front meanders across the local area.
This should keep temperatures near or slightly below
normal...with multiple chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
across parts of the local area...although severe weather appears
unlikely at this time. The main frontal boundary will eventually
shift southeast of the local area by next weekend...with dry
conditions and a return to above normal temperatures returning
next Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Scattered severe thunderstorms across western KS and NE will
continue eastward into the evening, eventually impacting both TAF
sites, but also gradually decreasing in intensity.

The HRRR model is handling the ongoing convection very well, so I
have leaned on it heavily for this TAF issuance. The HRRR fills
the ongoing storms into a well defined line that moves
southeastward. This makes sense given the increasing low-level
jet. As such I have included a brief period of prevailing TS at
both sites.

Some LLWS is also expected before the boundary passes through the
area tonight. Behind this boundary, we could see cloud ceilings
drop into the MVFR category into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021930-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe thunderstorms
will between 6 pm and midnight...and primarily west of highway
281. The main severe weather threats include hail to the size of
Tennis balls...70 mph winds...as well as an isolated tornado or
two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There are multiple chances for thunderstorms across the local
area through the middle of the upcoming work week. The best chance
for any strong or severe thunderstorms will be along a cold
front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected for areas mainly west of highway
281 later this afternoon or evening. Any reports of large
hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds would be
very much appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       SMITH              KS   STORM CHASER

            FROM TWITTER.

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEZ060-061-073-074-020230-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-Dawson NE-
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHERN
KEARNEY...BUFFALO AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Overton to near Minden. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Minden, Gibbon, Ravenna, Shelton, Elm Creek, Overton,
Odessa, Pleasanton, Amherst, Riverdale and Poole.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 245 and 292.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and central Nebraska.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4105 9917 4105 9872 4063 9872 4047 9901
      4069 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 228DEG 44KT 4071 9948 4055 9903

Billings Wright

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
902 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     HAIL             1 E LEXINGTON           40.78N 99.73W
10/01/2017  M0.50 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL FOR LAST 2 MIN.

&&

THIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             2 S KEARNEY             40.67N 99.09W
10/01/2017  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER.

&&

THIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
911 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
10/01/2017  M0.88 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. EST WIND GUSTS TO
            35MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
913 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HAIL             8 S ELWOOD              40.48N 99.89W
10/01/2017  E0.50 INCH       GOSPER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THIES