Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

An active weather pattern is expected across the local area
through the short term periods. With clearing to our west this
afternoon...instability has been building ahead of an approaching
cold front. Currently this front extends from near O'Neill
Nebraska southwest into eastern Colorado. Can already see some
cumulus starting to develop along the boundary...although nothing
has yet to really take off. That said...with plenty of
instability...effective shear values of 35 to 40 kts...and
forcing from the front...think that it is only a matter of time
before strong convection begins to initiate.

With the aforementioned parameters...have no trouble imagining
that organized convection will develop...with the potential for
large hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...as well as an
isolated tornado or two. Will continue to monitor...but think that
this convection will initiate to our west around 4 PM or 5
PM...making it to our western fringes by early evening...and
spreading east across the forecast area during the mid evening
through overnight hours. Short term model guidance is in fair
agreement with this...with both the HRRR/RAP developing a line of
thunderstorms and taking it east later this evening. With a
developing LLJ on the warm side of this boundary...expect
convection to persist through much of the overnight hours...but
with the best potential for severe storms coming primarily before
midnight.

With the cold front expected to stall across the local area
tomorrow...expect a fairly good temperature gradient to develop by
afternoon...with highs in the lower 60s forecast for our
north...and mid 80s forecast across out southeast. This front
should also become a focal point for convection during the late
afternoon and evening hours...with another chance for strong or
marginally severe thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow. While
severe potential does not look as great tomorrow...expect at least
the potential for marginally severe hail and 60 mph winds gusts
with the strongest storms through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun
Oct 1 2017

Continued unsettled weather is expected through much of the
extended periods as a cold front meanders across the local area.
This should keep temperatures near or slightly below
normal...with multiple chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
across parts of the local area...although severe weather appears
unlikely at this time. The main frontal boundary will eventually
shift southeast of the local area by next weekend...with dry
conditions and a return to above normal temperatures returning
next Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Scattered severe thunderstorms across western KS and NE will
continue eastward into the evening, eventually impacting both TAF
sites, but also gradually decreasing in intensity.

The HRRR model is handling the ongoing convection very well, so I
have leaned on it heavily for this TAF issuance. The HRRR fills
the ongoing storms into a well defined line that moves
southeastward. This makes sense given the increasing low-level
jet. As such I have included a brief period of prevailing TS at
both sites.

Some LLWS is also expected before the boundary passes through the
area tonight. Behind this boundary, we could see cloud ceilings
drop into the MVFR category into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021930-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe thunderstorms
will between 6 pm and midnight...and primarily west of highway
281. The main severe weather threats include hail to the size of
Tennis balls...70 mph winds...as well as an isolated tornado or
two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There are multiple chances for thunderstorms across the local
area through the middle of the upcoming work week. The best chance
for any strong or severe thunderstorms will be along a cold
front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected for areas mainly west of highway
281 later this afternoon or evening. Any reports of large
hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds would be
very much appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
800 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017  M2.00 INCH       SMITH              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL TO EGG SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
810 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             AGRA                    39.76N 99.12W
10/01/2017  E1.25 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF HAIL POSTED ON TWITTER.

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
814 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEZ060-072-020200-
Dawson NE-Gosper NE-
814 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GOSPER AND DAWSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Willow Island to 9 miles northwest of Eustis to
near Moorefield to near Stockville. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Cozad, Gothenburg, Sumner, Eddyville, Willow Island,
Johnson Lake and Farnam.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 209 and 242.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9949 4081 9953 4066 9969
      4057 9998 4070 9998 4070 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 256DEG 24KT 4089 10005 4078 10014 4067 10029
4056 10045

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
820 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             4 WNW KIRWIN            39.68N 99.20W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL COVERING ROAD AND IN DITCHES. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             KENSINGTON              39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       SMITH              KS   STORM CHASER

            FROM TWITTER.

&&

MANGELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NEZ060-061-073-074-020230-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-Dawson NE-
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHERN
KEARNEY...BUFFALO AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Overton to near Minden. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Minden, Gibbon, Ravenna, Shelton, Elm Creek, Overton,
Odessa, Pleasanton, Amherst, Riverdale and Poole.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 245 and 292.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and central Nebraska.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4105 9917 4105 9872 4063 9872 4047 9901
      4069 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 228DEG 44KT 4071 9948 4055 9903

Billings Wright