Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
138 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cold heads east this afternoon. Reinforcing clipper
system Thursday night into Friday. High pressure this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Wednesday...

Busy morning with strong to severe thunderstorms moving through.
This is headed east, but cold front still expected to slide
through this afternoon into this evening so have chance to
likely POPs lingering with light to moderate rain showers into
this evening. Cancelled part of the flash flood watch as
heavy rainfall begins to taper off, still have some areal and
river type flooding ongoing however.

Cold enough temperatures arrive late this evening to start a
transition to snow showers across the mountains with some light
accumulations possible. These should taper off through Thursday
morning.

Also quite strong down glide winds behind the front and have
gone with a wind advisory for the ridges of Pocahontas and
Randolph county. Did not take this west into the lowlands, but
will need to be watched for need to expand westward if winds do
better mixing down overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM Wednesday...

Models indicate a mid-level shortwave will push southeast
Thursday night into Friday. In response, precipitation should
overspread the region Thursday night...before coming to an end
by late Friday. Rain early Thursday night should quickly
transition to snow during the night with several inches of snow
possible across the northern mountains by late Friday morning.

High pressure will build into the area on Friday bringing the
precipitation to an end.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM Wednesday...

High pressure dominates the weekend, and holds on through early
next week while slowly pushing east. Next frontal system is
slated for Monday night into Tuesday time frame Temperatures
should be warm enough that the precipitation will be in the form
of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

Strong squall line has moved east, but still have some showers
and maybe a rumble of thunder through this afternoon. Do not
expect any IFR but periods of MVFR are likely. Tried to time
these out, but confidence not real high on this. Cold enough
tonight that lingering rain showers should transition to snow
showers across higher terrain, but kept out of EKN for now.

Gusty winds expected through TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in showers may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    L    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032-039-040-519>522-525-526.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ

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