Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
709 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cold front crosses today. Reinforcing clipper system
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...
Included severe thunderstorm watch for the northern half of the
area til 18Z. otherwise, little change with timing and
severity.

As of 455 AM Wednesday...

Very busy weather today compliments of a strong upper trough
and cold front slamming into very moist and unstable air over
our region. Ongoing band of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms over southeast OH at 09Z, mostly just west of the
Ohio River, is only slowly edging eastward. Another band of
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms lie along a strong cold
front dropping southeast into central Ohio. Looks like this cold
front and line of storms will merge with the first band later
this morning around the Ohio River, and then drive across the
area for remainder of the day, reaching the mountains late this
afternoon. What this means for us is a risk of flash flooding
and severe thunderstorms. We continue a flash flood watch for
the entire area today, while SPC has a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms in the west and marginal risk in the east.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat in the
west, and mainly strong to damaging winds are possible in the
east. Even though an ongoing strong southerly low level jet will
relax somewhat as the day progresses, the dynamics and
instability ahead of the system will maintain a severe and flood
threat. The good news is, the precip along with the
severe/water threat, will diminish behind the front, so that
most of the precip will be east of the I79 corridor by late this
afternoon.

By tonight, with the front and any severe threat exiting the
mountains, we turn our attention back to winter. Cold air moves
in tonight, with lingering northern mountain rain showers
changing to snow showers later tonight. Any accumulation tonight
will be very light and confined the higher elevations. West winds
will be quite gusty with the cold advection, and after today,
will feel even colder.

Temperatures will be well into the 60s to around 70 today ahead
of the showers and storms, with temperatures beginning to fall
this afternoon behind the front. Lows tonight will be well down
in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Post frontal environment brings sharply colder air into the
area and lingering snow showers over the northeast mountains. A
reinforcing clipper system will anchor more cold air, for a
short time anyways, and light snow across the northern half of
the CWA and emphasized over the northeast mountains again. There
are some challenges here in terms of timing of precipitation
type changes. Ahead of the secondary cold front, there will be
brief warm air advection, and need to keep the type as rain on
the front end heading into Thursday night. The cold front passes
and snow will follow as 850mb temps drop towards -10C and 925mb
temps drop back below zero. It is these 925mb temps that really
cement the rain on the front end in the warm air advection.
Heading into Friday, try very hard to avoid a snow to rain
scheme in a post frontal environment as model temperatures and
precipitation type like to present, and it rarely happens. But
given the time of year in late winter, this may be a legitimate
solution, and the low end POPs down towards the Kanawha Valley
will likely be rain with temps around 40 or so. Cannot justify
the rain/snow adjustment up that far. In the end, there does not
look to be too much of a change in overall amounts, and it is a
low end snow event.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

High pressure dominates the weekend, and holds on through early
next week while slowly pushing east. Temperatures begin
moderating again in the long term with warm air advection back
in force on Sunday and highs back in the 60s lowlands/50s
mountains. Next frontal system is slated for the Tuesday time
frame, but the forecast is dry through that time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z Wednesday thru 12Z Thursday...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...
Little change to previous forecast.

As 130 AM Wednesday...

A strong cold front will move southeastward across the area
today, preceded by showers and thunderstorms, and gusty south
winds. Some of the storms may contain damaging winds and large
hail. By around 01Z the front will be exiting the mountains,
ending the precip, except for some high elevation rain to snow showers
in the northern mountains. South winds today will be 15 to 20
KTS with gust 30 to 35 KTS.

Look for MVFR ceilings slowly eroding from south to north early
this morning, and should be mostly vfr ceilings around 4000 feet
outside of the widespread convection. Behind the front tonight,
some MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet will work back into the
northern and eastern portions of the WV, with some IFR in the
higher elevations of the northern mountains. West winds will
remain quite gusty, slowly diminishing overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Lbw to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of erosion of early
morning stratus deck may very. Timing and strength of
showers/thunderstorms could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040-519>522-525-526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HAIL             GRANTSVILLE             38.92N  81.09W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700246

MEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

WVZ011-020-031-032-011230-
Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-Tyler-
658 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DODDRIDGE...TAYLOR...
EAST CENTRAL TYLER AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 658 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Jacksonburg to 10 miles north of
Glenville. Movement was east at 75 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Grafton, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Stonewood, Nutter Fort,
Salem, Lumberport, West Union, Anmoore, Enterprise, West Milford,
Flemington, Valley Falls, Grangeville, Wolf Summit, Meadland, Tygart
Lake State Park, Center Point and Sedalia.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 114 and 128.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 53 and 82.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3946 8067 3947 8064 3943 8054 3947 8048
      3943 8028 3939 8020 3941 8011 3939 8009
      3940 8003 3944 7995 3926 8005 3915 8055
      3917 8059 3914 8063 3914 8066 3909 8071
      3911 8081 3915 8084 3948 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 250DEG 63KT 3955 8061 3909 8082

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENUP                 38.58N  82.83W
03/01/2017                   GREENUP            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN AT ST RT 207 AND US23. CALL CAME INTO
            DISPATCH AT 626... RADAR ESTIMATE TO 620.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700247

MEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
702 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

KYZ101>103-OHZ087-WVZ006-011230-
Boyd-Greenup-Carter-Lawrence-Cabell-
702 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BOYD...SOUTHERN
GREENUP...NORTHEASTERN CARTER...LAWRENCE AND NORTHEASTERN CABELL
COUNTIES...

At 702 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Oldtown, or
near Grayson, moving east at 75 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Ironton, Grayson, Coal Grove, Cannonsburg, Lake Vesuvius,
Kenova, Catlettsburg, Princess, Coalton, Greenbo Lake, Oldtown,
Naples, Flatwoods, South Point, Russell, Raceland, Worthington,
Wurtland and Bellefonte.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 169 and
182.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3868 8247 3868 8236 3859 8236 3858 8229
      3860 8226 3859 8222 3851 8211 3841 8257
      3842 8260 3840 8260 3831 8299 3847 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1202Z 249DEG 67KT 3843 8291

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

WVZ007-008-016>018-011245-
Calhoun-Jackson-Roane-Wirt-Mason-
715 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALHOUN...EAST CENTRAL
MASON...SOUTHEASTERN WIRT...NORTHERN ROANE AND CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES...

At 715 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ripley, moving
east at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ripley, Spencer, Arnoldsburg, Kenna, Reedy, Millstone, Statts Mills,
Given, Mount Zion, Cottageville, Orma, Lucille, Evans, Creston,
Annamoriah, Leroy, Fairplain and Gay.

This includes Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 126
and 142.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3901 8113 3875 8107 3866 8173 3869 8175
      3867 8183 3867 8190 3885 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1215Z 258DEG 55KT 3878 8179

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
717 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

WVZ030-031-039-040-011245-
Barbour-Harrison-Upshur-Lewis-
717 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEWIS...NORTHERN
UPSHUR...BARBOUR AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 717 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Jackson Mill, or 9 miles northwest of Buckhannon, moving east at 65
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhannon, Weston, Philippi, Audra State Park, Belington, Stonewall
Jackson, Jackson Mill, Lost Creek, Jane Lew, Camden, Moatsville,
Volga, Lorentz, Century, Sand Run, Nestorville, Hodgesville, Galloway
and Horner.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 88 and 113.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3913 7984 3911 7982 3909 7985 3904 7987
      3891 8062 3892 8063 3915 8056 3924 8014
      3925 8002 3926 7997 3928 7996 3930 7988
      3927 7985 3925 7985 3923 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 258DEG 58KT 3911 8031

12