Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 157

May 9, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 9, 2016, 7:23 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 9, 2016, 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2016, 3:41 AM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 84 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

48 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Searcy, Stone, Van Buren50 min
May 9, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Izard, Sharp48 min
May 9, 7:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGRandolph52 min
May 9, 7:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River, Sevier46 min
May 9, 8:00 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVRed River45 min
May 9, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay, Randolph52 min
May 9, 8:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVRed River57 min
May 9, 8:43 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVRed River47 min
May 9, 8:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River56 min
May 9, 8:52 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVLittle River53 min
May 9, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk22 min
May 9, 8:57 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVRed River48 min
May 9, 8:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay46 min
May 9, 9:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHoward, Sevier36 min
May 9, 9:26 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVLittle River3 hr
May 9, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVLittle River45 min
May 9, 9:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Sevier52 min
May 9, 9:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Pike50 min
May 9, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Izard, Sharp45 min
May 9, 9:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River, Miller56 min
May 9, 9:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Perry, Pulaski, Saline40 min
May 9, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Pike21 min
May 9, 10:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring, Pike34 min
May 9, 10:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline47 min
May 9, 10:30 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVLittle River45 min
May 9, 10:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier53 min
May 9, 10:38 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKPulaski, Saline13 min
May 9, 10:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River32 min
May 9, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIzard, Sharp, Stone49 min
May 9, 11:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Pulaski16 min
May 9, 11:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski, White54 min
May 9, 11:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada63 min
May 9, 11:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Sharp31 min
May 9, 11:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Miller30 min
May 9, 11:49 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGRandolph3 hr
May 9, 11:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie, White, Woodruff49 min
May 10, 12:12 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleveland, Dallas48 min
May 10, 12:29 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Lafayette, Union61 min
May 10, 12:35 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie55 min
May 10, 12:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCross, Lee, St. Francis53 min
May 10, 12:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleveland, Desha, Lincoln45 min
May 10, 12:47 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMonroe, Prairie43 min
May 10, 12:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Dallas38 min
May 10, 1:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Monroe55 min
May 10, 1:19 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Phillips41 min
May 10, 1:29 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleveland, Dallas, Grant, Jefferson46 min
May 10, 1:33 AM CDTTornado WarningLZKCleveland, Dallas, Grant, Jefferson42 min
May 10, 3:35 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPhillips26 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1192 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 189 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1192 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1065 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
263 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.5
Supercell composite
10.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

756 
WWUS20 KWNS 100021
SEL7  
SPC WW 100021
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-100700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
  NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
  THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
    TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS NOW NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE OK-TX BORDER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E OR ENE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM IN NE TX / NW LA
/ SW AR AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELLS.  THESE MAY THEMSELVES EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOS E / NE ACROSS NRN LA / SRN AR.
FINALLY...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE OF STORMS IN N CENTRAL AR
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS / SUPERCELLS
POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE
ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...WW 155...WW 156...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 8:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 32 more89 min
May 9, 10:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll83 min
May 9, 11:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 26 more90 min
May 10, 1:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew93 min
May 9, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt57 min
May 9, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Iron, Madison and 8 more6 hr
May 9, 9:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Perry, Scott and 1 more93 min
May 9, 10:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt, Nodaway54 min
May 10, 7:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIron, Jefferson, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois104 min
May 10, 12:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard9 hr
May 10, 3:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi67 min
May 10, 5:06 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, Dickson and 14 more6 hr
May 10, 1:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 45 more2 hr
May 10, 2:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 63 more7 hr
May 10, 6:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 61 more96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2016Tornado Watches in Texas, 2016Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.