Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 581

May 10, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2016, 1:42 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2016, 1:42 AM CDT (06:42 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2016, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Union Parish, LA, Bolivar County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Washington County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Houston County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2016-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 606 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2016-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 289 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
606 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
834 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
289 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.1
Supercell composite
15.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

221 
ACUS11 KWNS 100642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100642 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-100815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ARKANSAS...WRN TENNESSEE...NW MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...158...

VALID 100642Z - 100815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157...158...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUING LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS /STRONGEST OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN MEASURED APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS/ ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
MEAN FLOW FIELD...LINGERING SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  LIGHTNING TRENDS AND MRMS
CAPPI DATA HAVE INDICATED A DISTINCT WEAKENING TREND TO THE STRONGER
CONVECTION... AND LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY IS STILL ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ROOTED WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 08-09Z...IF NOT
BEFORE...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST OF JACKSON TN/OXFORD AND
GREENWOOD MS LINE.

..KERR.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33729198 33759155 34249084 34539053 34989009 35419000
            35859005 36068996 36468746 34668939 33199076 32789253
            33729198

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 7:23 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 53 more8 hr
May 9, 8:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 32 more89 min
May 9, 10:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll83 min
May 9, 11:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 26 more90 min
May 10, 3:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMontgomery, Robertson, Stewart67 min
May 10, 5:06 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, Dickson and 14 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.