Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 586

May 10, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2016, 3:08 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2016, 3:08 PM CDT (20:08 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2016, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 26 counties

Alexander County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Warren County, KY, Mississippi County, MO, Montgomery County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Stewart County, TN

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 62 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 339 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
62 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-131 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
818 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
332 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

960 
ACUS11 KWNS 102009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102008 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN KY...NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102008Z - 102115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN KY.  UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...EARLY-DAY MCS HAS PROGRESSED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SRN OH
VALLEY REGION.  TRAILING THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN SEEMINGLY WEAKER FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 
EVEN SO...STRONG BULK SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY HAVE INCREASED THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR...ONE
TORNADIC STORM HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN KY...GRAVES COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MATURE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.  IF ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS THIS REGION AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37348709 37038637 36248678 36448943 37278943 37348709

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson, Massac and 5 more6 hr
May 9, 9:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and 2 more93 min
May 10, 7:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Jackson, Jefferson, Monroe and 9 more104 min
May 10, 12:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and 1 more9 hr
May 10, 5:06 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCGallatin, Hardin, Massac, Pope, Saline6 hr
May 10, 12:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyle, Bracken and 50 more67 min
May 10, 3:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 49 more61 min
May 10, 5:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 23 more86 min
May 10, 5:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay and 31 more7 hr
May 9, 7:23 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDunklin, Pemiscot8 hr
May 9, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt57 min
May 9, 10:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt, Nodaway54 min
May 9, 10:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Cedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas and 10 more83 min
May 10, 1:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Dyer, Fayette and 10 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.