Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 583
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2016, 1:38 PM EDT for 5 counties in Indiana; 56 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 67 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2016, 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2016, 2:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 61 counties
Clark County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Clark County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 12 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -131 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 818 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 339 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 332 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
332
ACUS11 KWNS 101739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101738
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-101845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101738Z - 101845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OH VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT...SHROUDED IN CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS...IS MIGRATING ACROSS ECNTRL IL. THIS FEATURE IS LONG-LIVED
AND IS WELL HANDLED MY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY
ALIGNED ALONG THE OH RIVER...PARALLEL TO MEAN DEEP-LAYER FLOW. OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD DEBRIS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS
SUGGEST AN UPWARD EVOLVING COMPLEX OF TSTMS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS
THE SRN OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FAVORS ORGANIZED LINE STRUCTURES AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 37398795 38028620 38888560 39078397 37808344 36828722
37398795SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 1:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Dearborn, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Ohio and 3 more | 9 hr |
| May 10, 4:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Dearborn, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Jennings and 4 more | 61 min |
| May 10, 6:06 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Posey, Vanderburgh | 6 hr |
| May 9, 9:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Livingston and 1 more | 6 hr |
| May 9, 10:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Hickman, McCracken | 93 min |
| May 10, 4:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Fulton and 13 more | 67 min |
| May 10, 6:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 23 more | 86 min |
| May 10, 6:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay and 31 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.