Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163

May 10, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 10, 2016, 6:52 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2016, 6:52 PM EDT (22:52 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2016, 2:00 AM EDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 58 counties

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee, Menifee, Powell, Wolfe	64 min
May 10, 6:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Lee, Owsley, Wolfe	61 min
May 10, 7:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley, Rockcastle	62 min
May 10, 7:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Elliott, Menifee, Morgan, Rowan, Wolfe	49 min
May 10, 7:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Boyd, Carter, Lawrence	32 min
May 10, 8:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Magoffin, Perry	44 min
May 10, 8:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Lee, Magoffin, Owsley, Wolfe	39 min
May 10, 8:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Morgan, Wolfe	3 hr
May 10, 8:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin	59 min
May 10, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski	76 min
May 10, 9:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Martin, Pike	62 min
May 10, 9:24 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Fleming	3 hr
May 10, 9:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Knott, Pike	52 min
May 10, 9:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski, Wayne	57 min
May 10, 10:05 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Wayne	31 min
May 10, 10:06 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Pulaski, Rockcastle	24 min
May 10, 10:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pike	17 min
May 10, 10:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski	40 min
May 10, 11:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski	14 min
May 10, 11:01 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RLX	Boyd, Carter, Lawrence	4 hr
May 10, 11:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Whitley	49 min
May 10, 11:24 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Montgomery, Rowan	4 hr
May 10, 11:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Knox, Laurel, Whitley	42 min
May 10, 11:58 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Pulaski, Rockcastle	3 hr
May 11, 1:25 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Laurel, Pulaski	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1038 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 165 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 244 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 9:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Livingston and 1 more	6 hr
May 9, 10:42 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Hickman, McCracken	93 min
May 10, 1:38 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyle, Bracken and 50 more	67 min
May 10, 1:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Boone and 75 more	9 hr
May 10, 4:08 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Fulton and 13 more	67 min
May 10, 4:44 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Bourbon and 49 more	61 min
May 10, 6:06 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Allen, Ballard, Barren, Butler, Caldwell and 35 more	6 hr
May 10, 6:19 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 23 more	86 min
May 10, 7:41 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bedford, Brunswick, Campbell, Charlotte, Dinwiddie, Franklin and 10 more	94 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.