Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, KY

063 
WGUS73 KJKL 110458
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

KYC199-203-110700-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160511T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
1258 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN PULASKI AND SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 1256 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. UP TO
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...ROADS...AND ROADSIDE
CULVERTS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SCIENCE HILL...BILLOWS...WOODSTOCK...VALLEY OAK...HANSFORD...BOBTOWN...
MAGNUM...BLOSS...SAND HILL...DABNEY...LUNER...LEVEL GREEN...SHOPVILLE...
HOGUE...PONGO...STAB...PULASKI AND LIVINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 8469 3730 8419 3728 8421 3728 8422
      3727 8422 3723 8424 3724 8426 3722 8427
      3721 8426 3716 8430 3715 8484

$$

GEOGERIAN

462 
WGUS73 KJKL 110659
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

KYC199-203-110708-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160511T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
259 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN PULASKI AND SOUTHERN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM EDT...

THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3726 8469 3730 8419 3728 8421 3728 8422
      3727 8422 3723 8424 3724 8426 3722 8427
      3721 8426 3716 8430 3715 8484

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH...INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED POPS AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE TOWARD SEVERE
CRITERIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN
DIAMETER REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM HAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN KY...ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADO
WARNINGS. INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST NAM RUNS...WITH 2K J/KG EXPECTED BY 21Z. HOWEVER...HIGHEST
CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE STRONG LLVL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR BELOW 4K FT...ALSO SHOWING A HIGH
POSSIBILITY FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF THESE STORMS SO FAR...CAN ALSO EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HI RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE TRACK OF STORMS AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR REGION.
THIS MORNING THE HRRR INITIALIZED THE BEST...BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY. LATER ON...THE HI
RES ARW HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. IF THIS HELD TRUE IT SHOWED THE SYSTEM
COLD POOLING THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ONLY CLIPPING OUR SW
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SEEMED TO COME INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TRAVELING ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REACH NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0
AND 6Z. BASED NEAR TERM POPS ON THIS IDEA...HOWEVER AM A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THIS IS A BIT SLOW...AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AT THAT POINT.

SRLY WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DRY PERIODS...THE
WEATHER AS A WHOLE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
FRONT SHOULD DEPART EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SATURATED LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING GREAT ENOUGH CHANCES/COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-120215-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR
FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GUSEMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1021 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ120-110245-
PIKE-
1021 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PIKE...

AT 1020 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER MCANDREWS...
OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLIAMSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODMAN...PHELPS...JAMBOREE...BELFRY...MCANDREWS...HUDDY...COLEMAN...KIMPER...
BOARD TREE...HARDY...MAJESTIC AND EDGARTON.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17
AND 22.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 8234 3755 8241 3766 8223 3762 8221
      3762 8219 3765 8218 3762 8218 3758 8213
      3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8208 3753 8205
      3755 8204 3754 8202 3754 8197 3753 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 243DEG 29KT 3754 8228

JVM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ044-051-052-110315-
ROWAN-BATH-FLEMING-
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...BATH...FLEMING...

AT 1025 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SHARKEY...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...GRANGE CITY...HAYS CROSSING...CHRISTY...PEASTICKS...RINGOS
MILLS...SHARKEY...CLEARFIELD...MUNSON...HAMM...HILDA...MOORE'S FERRY...
RAMEY...VALE...CRIX...TRIPLETT...PLUMMERS LANDING...GATES...RODBURN AND
WALTZ.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
125 AND 148.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8337 3832 8336 3832 8334 3821 8330
      3821 8329 3811 8329 3815 8371 3834 8363
      3837 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 272DEG 22KT 3824 8359

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ079-080-084-110315-
LAUREL-MCCREARY-PULASKI-
1047 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF LAUREL...
MCCREARY...AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 1045 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SLOANS VALLEY...OR 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURNSIDE...MOUNT VICTORY...TATEVILLE...HUXLEY...ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS...
SLOANS VALLEY AND ALPINE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8459 3702 8458 3704 8429 3695 8429
      3693 8431 3691 8431 3690 8432 3688 8432
      3687 8433 3686 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 270DEG 23KT 3696 8452

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1127 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             DRIFT                   37.48N 82.75W
05/10/2016  E1.25 INCH       FLOYD              KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     HAIL             HIGHTOP                 37.03N 84.19W
05/10/2016  M1.00 INCH       LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1140 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     HAIL             1 SW CORBIN             36.93N 84.12W
05/10/2016  M1.00 INCH       WHITLEY            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE GORDON HILL AREA.

&&

DSTAMPER