Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 592

May 10, 201616 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2016, 7:41 PM EDT for 16 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2016, 7:41 PM EDT (23:41 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2016, 9:15 PM EDT
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Bedford County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1686 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 157 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 147 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

915 
ACUS11 KWNS 102341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102341 
VAZ000-NCZ000-110115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA/EXTREME NORTHERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102341Z - 110115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE OVERALL RISK IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE LYNCHBURG AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF SOUTH
BOSTON/NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AS OF 2315Z/715 PM EDT. THESE STORMS ARE
NEAR THE WEDGE-RELATED FRONT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS WNW/ESE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN VA. AT LEAST A WEAK SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND AN AMPLE VEERING OF WINDS
WIND HEIGHT /ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS/.
ACCORDINGLY...PERIODIC BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37468001 37287766 36647722 36437760 36427822 37038056
            37468001

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 6:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Buchanan, Dickenson	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.