Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MANY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE IS AFFECTING PBF NOW AND WILL REACH
LLQ IN ANOTHER HOUR. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LINE
AND BEHIND IT. ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION OF
TX/OK. MEANWHILE...MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER STILL
COVER THE BULK OF THE REGION. THIS HAS HAS LIMITED THE
HEATING/INSTABILITY POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL STILL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN AS COLDER
TEMPS ARE ADVECTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPER CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...DO EXPECT
DISCRETE...SUPERCELL FORMATION ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT. STORMS THAT GET GOING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
LATER TODAY WILL BE CABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SOME TORNADOES.

AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...THE DISCRETE
CELLS COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY AND FORM A
QUASI-LINER CONVECTIVE LINE...POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE TORNADIC
CHANCES LATER.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

FOR TUESDAY...WARM DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.
HOWEVER...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THRU THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...AS A NWLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT. BY THIS
WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. 53

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE. SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

51/44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1129 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BISMARCK                34.32N 93.17W
05/09/2016                   HOT SPRING         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

JHOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

ARZ056-062-063-067-100545-
JEFFERSON AR-CALHOUN AR-DALLAS AR-CLEVELAND AR-
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1200 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARTHAGE TO 10 MILES
NORTH OF HARLOW TO NEAR SPARKMAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORDYCE...             RISON...               KINGSLAND...
THORNTON...            TOLEDO...              KEDRON...
STAVES...              RAMSEY...              MT ZION...
HOLLY SPRINGS...       PINE GROVE...          OUACHITA...
CHAMBERSVILLE...       BUNN...                PRINCETON...
IVAN...                HOPEVILLE...           RANDALL...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3377 9259 3380 9258 3380 9276 3383 9289
      3384 9288 3386 9289 3394 9269 3408 9251
      3408 9237 3406 9233 3406 9224 3409 9223
      3409 9200 3387 9214 3374 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 268DEG 29KT 3404 9247 3390 9261 3384 9284

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE CHENAL VALLEY     34.82N 92.44W
05/09/2016                   PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON PINNACLE VALLEY ROAD.

&&

CDALTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADDO VALLEY            34.18N 93.07W
05/09/2016                   CLARK              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES BLOWN OVER.

&&

JHOOD