Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION OF
TX/OK. MEANWHILE...MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER STILL
COVER THE BULK OF THE REGION. THIS HAS HAS LIMITED THE
HEATING/INSTABILITY POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL STILL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN AS COLDER
TEMPS ARE ADVECTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPER CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...DO EXPECT
DISCRETE...SUPERCELL FORMATION ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
LIFT. STORMS THAT GET GOING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
LATER TODAY WILL BE CABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SOME TORNADOES.

AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...THE DISCRETE
CELLS COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY AND FORM A
QUASI-LINER CONVECTIVE LINE...POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE TORNADIC
CHANCES LATER.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

FOR TUESDAY...WARM DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.
HOWEVER...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THRU THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD
BE ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...AS A NWLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT. BY THIS
WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. 53

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  81  68  85 /  90  30  40  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  67  85 /  60  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       62  81  65  82 /  80  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  84  69  84 /  70  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  85  69  86 /  80  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  67  86 /  60  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  82  67  83 /  70  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  65  85 /  90  20  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  82  68  86 /  80  30  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     67  86  67  85 /  60  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  82  67  85 /  90  20  20  30
SEARCY AR         65  83  66  85 /  80  20  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  66  86 /  70  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER ARKANSAS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK
ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE. SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

51/44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
457 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ030-037-092230-
SCOTT AR-LOGAN AR-
457 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SCOTT AND LOGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ECHO...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BOONEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONEVILLE...          PARIS...               MAGAZINE...
SUBIACO...             RATCLIFF...            BLUE MOUNTAIN...
ECHO...                MOUNT MAGAZINE...      CAULKSVILLE...
BARBER...              GLENDALE IN LOGAN CO...
CARBON CITY...
CAROLAN...             CHISMVILLE...          ROSEVILLE...
CORLEY...              GRAYSON...             LUCAS...
IONE...                DRIGGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3510 9414 3515 9413 3515 9403 3523 9403
      3523 9392 3532 9391 3531 9381 3542 9380
      3536 9375 3537 9370 3522 9352 3496 9405
      3509 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 224DEG 50KT 3510 9406

226

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