Mesoscale Discussion 931

Issued

Jun 15, 2016, 12:05 PM CDT (17:05 UTC)

Expired

Jun 15, 2016, 1:30 PM CDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258Jun 15, 12:40 PM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260Jun 15, 3:00 PM CDT

435 
ACUS11 KWNS 151705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151705 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE
TN...SERN MO...FAR NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 151705Z - 151830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM SRN IND SWWD INTO
SERN MO NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF
KY AND MIDDLE TN...DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND
WITH CONTINUED FILTERED SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL HEATING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR MAINTAINING
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AREA VWP DATA NOTES A
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS
AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...SPREADING ESEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL KY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ESRL AND NCEP HRRR SUGGEST
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 18Z.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38528761 38738686 39128558 39038496 38768462 37918527
            36798661 35198811 35058874 35078985 35159042 35629056
            36379020 36978997 37938842 38528761

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.