Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 935

June 15, 201612 counties in Illinois; 49 counties in Indiana; 14 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 2:23 PM CDT for 12 counties in Illinois; 49 counties in Indiana; 14 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 15, 2016, 2:23 PM CDT (19:23 UTC)
Expired
Jun 15, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 75 counties

Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Macon County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Noble County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2016-06-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1089 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2016-06-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1089 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-102 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
825 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

932 
ACUS11 KWNS 151923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151923 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL INDIANA...WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 151923Z - 152100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL AND CNTRL INDIANA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING TOWERING CU
AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS
CNTRL IL...AND ACROSS W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL IND. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY /AOA 2500 J/KG/...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
GENERALLY WEAK...AND SFC FLOW VEERED/WLY...THE MOIST AND UNCAPPED
AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS GIVEN 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DMGG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED BY THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...AND
NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   41228640 41618573 41578409 41058351 40138387 39028631
            39138744 39188869 39438931 39848933 40458803 41228640

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 14, 7:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Clay, DeWitt, Effingham, Fayette, Logan and 7 more117 min
Jun 14, 8:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Jo Daviess, Whiteside84 min
Jun 14, 11:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, Lee, Ogle93 min
Jun 15, 12:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope and 3 more85 min
Jun 15, 12:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 10 more8 hr
Jun 15, 3:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 9 more5 hr
Jun 15, 6:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWabash59 min
Jun 15, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Scott53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.