Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 927
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 7:18 PM CDT for 13 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2016, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2016, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Christian County, IL, Clay County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Woodford County, IL
The radar
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 952 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1379 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
967
ACUS11 KWNS 150019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150018
ILZ000-150215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150018Z - 150215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED NNW-SSE
THROUGH PARTS OF CNTRL IL WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION GENERATING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THIS ZONE WILL TEND TO ADVANCE INTO THE MODESTLY
COOLER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN THIS CONVECTION MAY OCCUR GIVEN
ASCENT RELATED TO A GLANCING/SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PER WATER
VAPOR LOOPS. HOWEVER...AIR ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
FEATURES SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR MAINTAINED CONVECTION
AMIDST BACKED SFC WINDS. MODEST AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH ON ITS
COOLER SIDE...MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/MODEST DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILX RAOB...THE SVR RISK IS
PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 40808990 41128975 41008903 39698864 38758822 38528869
38908924 39638960 40808990SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 8:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, Jo Daviess, Whiteside | 84 min |
| Jun 14, 11:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | DeKalb, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, Lee, Ogle | 93 min |
| Jun 15, 12:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope and 3 more | 85 min |
| Jun 15, 12:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 10 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 15, 2:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Champaign, Christian, Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas and 6 more | 97 min |
| Jun 15, 3:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas and 9 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 15, 6:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Wabash | 59 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.