Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 938
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 3:01 PM CDT for 13 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 3:01 PM CDT (20:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1268 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -87 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 938 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 175 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.9
The text
As transmitted.
558
ACUS11 KWNS 152002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152001
MOZ000-ARZ000-152130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MO...N-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152001Z - 152130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF S-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS DEVELOPED SE OF SGF NEAR A STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF TOWERING
CU HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR TBN...AND ACROSS N-CNTRL AR. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY WEAK...WITH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE LIKELY BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR ANY NEW CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS YIELDING EXTREME
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK /10-20 KT/...BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION.
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36939283 37499234 37809194 37609135 37229115 36819112
36209094 35859106 35399145 35299176 35349231 35769282
36409335 36939283SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 12:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Mississippi | 85 min |
| Jun 15, 12:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Mississippi | 8 hr |
| Jun 15, 6:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Independence, Jackson and 6 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.