Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 945
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 6:29 PM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Mississippi; 6 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 6:29 PM CDT (23:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 27 counties
Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Benton County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Crockett County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1644 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -106 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 917 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 116 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 170 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
977 ACUS11 KWNS 152329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152329 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AR...WESTERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... VALID 152329Z - 160100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS POSSIBLE. WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WATCH 258 OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AR THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK /GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS/...THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY RICH MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP...AS SFC TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. IN TURN...AMPLE BUOYANCY REMAINS FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOME BY AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. AS SUCH...WATCH 258 COULD BE EXTENDED WESTWARD...OR A NEW WATCH MIGHT BE ISSUED. ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 35779201 36199051 35888896 34248916 34039070 35779201
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 12:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Mississippi | 85 min |
| Jun 15, 12:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Mississippi | 8 hr |
| Jun 15, 3:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard and 7 more | 89 min |
| Jun 15, 3:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn, Benton, Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Tippah and 2 more | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.