Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 934
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 2:12 PM EDT for 11 counties in Kentucky; 29 counties in Virginia; 17 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 57 counties
Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Alleghany County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1029 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
478
ACUS11 KWNS 151813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151812
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151812Z - 151945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY A TSTM
CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS ERN KY AND SWRN WV...AND TSTMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SERN KY AND SWRN VA. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTER IS PROGRESSING EWD INTO SWRN
WV...WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THE AIR MASS DOWNSHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY LESS UNSTABLE
THAN AREAS TO THE S/W DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT
STRONG HEATING IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. RLX VWP
DATA SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY 20-30 KT OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM
AGL...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS SRN WV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING FARTHER SWD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY AND SWRN
VA. STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 38458224 38488061 37687951 37057914 36598007 36658145
36718302 37038352 38308274 38458224SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 1:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway and 37 more | 85 min |
| Jun 15, 1:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Boyle and 56 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 15, 4:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 15, 4:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 45 more | 53 min |
| Jun 15, 7:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 7 more | 59 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.