Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 712

May 24, 20166 counties in Colorado; 5 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 5:46 PM MDT for 6 counties in Colorado; 5 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 24, 2016, 5:46 PM MDT (23:46 UTC)
Expired
May 24, 2016, 7:15 PM MDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%

Counties Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Chase County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Perkins County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2016-05-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2016-05-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 89 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1378 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

285 
ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 242346Z - 250115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED SHORTLY
FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEB.

DISCUSSION...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO TO FAR
SOUTHWEST NEB HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.  THE STRONGEST STORM IN THIS COMPLEX IS
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25
KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW 203 BY 01Z INTO YUMA COUNTY CO.  THE DRYLINE
WAS ANALYZED FROM GREELEY COUNTY KS NORTHWEST THROUGH CHEYENNE
COUNTY CO TO NEAR THE STORM IN MORGAN COUNTY.  A STRENGTHENING
E/SELY INFLOW OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL ALLOW THE MORGAN STORM AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
SPREAD EAST OF WW 203 THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SELY LLJ...FURTHER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39740421 40970380 40990208 40870131 40240102 39570066
            39150083 38700170 39510264 39740421

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 24, 11:31 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and 9 more59 min
May 24, 12:45 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Denver, Logan, Morgan, Phillips and 3 more7 hr
May 24, 2:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Denver, Logan, Morgan, Phillips and 4 more86 min
May 23, 10:22 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark83 min
May 23, 10:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Butler, Cloud, Dickinson, Edwards, Ellis and 31 more114 min
May 23, 11:08 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 36 more7 hr
May 24, 2:08 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Graham, Lincoln, Mitchell, Norton and 4 more67 min
May 24, 1:31 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Gray, Haskell and 7 more119 min
May 24, 2:22 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 21 more9 hr
May 24, 5:14 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Gove and 11 more91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.