Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 704

May 24, 201615 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 11:31 AM MDT for 15 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2016, 11:31 AM MDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2016, 12:30 PM MDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 203May 24, 12:40 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1378 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

422 
ACUS11 KWNS 241732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241731 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 241731Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
N-CNTRL/NE CO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...SELY UPSLOPE-FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 40S /POSSIBLY LOW 50S/
DESPITE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED
WITH THIS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG. INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT RESULTING FROM THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE /LIKELY OVER THE
DENVER METRO AT 17Z/ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY 20Z. 

KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AT INITIATION TIME WILL LIKELY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SELY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT...SWLY WINDS FROM
40-50 KT AT 6 KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE RESULTING
SUPERCELLS LIKELY CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38990466 39250517 39660542 40060554 40680531 41130433
            41060338 40690272 40230222 39560225 39210259 38920348
            38990466

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 12:45 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Logan, Morgan, Phillips and 3 more	7 hr
May 24, 2:34 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Logan, Morgan, Phillips and 4 more	86 min
May 24, 5:46 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.