Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 707

May 24, 201610 counties in Colorado; Deuel County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 2:34 PM MDT for 10 counties in Colorado; Deuel County, Nebraska. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2016, 2:34 PM MDT (20:34 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2016, 4:00 PM MDT
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Denver County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Deuel County, NE

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 206May 24, 6:05 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1378 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

421 
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

VALID 242034Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD WITH
THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...KFTG RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SUPERCELL TSTMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DENVER METRO WITH MRMS MESH RECENTLY ESTIMATING
HAIL SIZE APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...AND SELY WINDS
AROUND 15 KT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000
J PER KG. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS A BIT FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS NE CO/ WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE CLOSER
TO 1500 J PER KG. 

IN ADDITION TO THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE.
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED SHEAR AND CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. 

GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING
A FEW TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39450489 40930489 41200225 39750224 39450489

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 11:31 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and 9 more	59 min
May 24, 12:45 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Logan, Morgan, Phillips and 3 more	7 hr
May 24, 5:46 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.