Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 706
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2016, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 29 counties
Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Briscoe County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2293 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -201 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 862 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 251 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 238 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted.
083
ACUS11 KWNS 241931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241931
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241931Z - 242130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 37010082 37540108 38180176 38540171 38620121 38480037
38259977 37269911 36479911 35149970 34300046 34220106
34480137 36020087 37010082SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 11:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark | 83 min |
| May 23, 11:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Butler, Cloud, Dickinson, Edwards, Ellis and 31 more | 114 min |
| May 24, 12:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 36 more | 7 hr |
| May 24, 3:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Graham, Lincoln, Mitchell, Norton and 4 more | 67 min |
| May 24, 3:22 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 21 more | 9 hr |
| May 24, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Gove and 11 more | 91 min |
| May 24, 6:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 89 min |
| May 23, 8:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 5 more | 92 min |
| May 23, 11:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 24, 1:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Major, Noble and 3 more | 2 hr |
| May 24, 4:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Creek, Haskell, Latimer, Lincoln, McIntosh and 8 more | 63 min |
| May 24, 4:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer and 16 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.