Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 705
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 1:25 PM CDT for 9 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2016, 1:25 PM CDT (18:25 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Garfield County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 250 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -349 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2092 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -63 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
750
ACUS11 KWNS 241825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241825
OKZ000-242030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241825Z - 242030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS BORDER DOWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OK AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A TRIO OF CELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AMID A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG...THESE CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER /AS
SIMULATED BY THE 17Z NCEP-PARALLEL-HRRR/. WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA
DEPICTING INDICATIONS OF VEER-BACK WINDS FROM 0-3 KM AGL AND STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...HODOGRAPH SHAPE APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36629851 36899692 36919642 36659613 36199611 35859676
35699745 35809821 36029861 36299876 36629851SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 8:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 5 more | 92 min |
| May 23, 11:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 7 more | 83 min |
| May 23, 11:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 24, 2:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward | 119 min |
| May 24, 3:22 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Texas and 2 more | 9 hr |
| May 24, 4:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Creek, Haskell, Latimer, Lincoln, McIntosh and 8 more | 63 min |
| May 24, 4:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer and 16 more | 7 hr |
| May 24, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.