Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 700
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2016, 11:22 PM CDT for Clark County, Kansas; 13 counties in Oklahoma; 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2016, 11:22 PM CDT (04:22 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2016, 12:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 25 counties
Clark County, KS, Beckham County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 61 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -39 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3551 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
422
ACUS11 KWNS 240423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240422
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST
OK AND NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240422Z - 240545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...NEW TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND NEAR THE
ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...
THOUGH SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN TIME OF DAY AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. A
NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHWEST OK...
WESTERN NORTH TX...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
FARTHER NORTH...STORMS NEAR THE NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER SHOULD TEND
TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT
DIMINISHING AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST TX...RESULTING IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
PER AREA VWPS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY INTO
THIS COMPLEX. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO
THREAT HAS LIKELY GREATLY DIMINISHED GIVEN TIME OF DAY WITH
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...THE LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
/EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F MAY ALLOW FOR A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34380090 35010129 35890099 37090017 37349974 36519913
35389867 34539848 34109855 33859905 34029969 34380090SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 11:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Butler, Cloud, Dickinson, Edwards, Ellis and 31 more | 114 min |
| May 24, 12:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 36 more | 7 hr |
| May 24, 3:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Graham, Lincoln, Mitchell, Norton and 4 more | 67 min |
| May 24, 2:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Finney, Ford, Gray, Haskell and 7 more | 119 min |
| May 24, 3:22 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 21 more | 9 hr |
| May 24, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Gove and 11 more | 91 min |
| May 24, 6:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace | 89 min |
| May 23, 8:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 5 more | 92 min |
| May 23, 11:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Custer, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 24, 1:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Major, Noble and 3 more | 2 hr |
| May 24, 4:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Creek, Haskell, Latimer, Lincoln, McIntosh and 8 more | 63 min |
| May 24, 4:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer and 16 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.