Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 708

May 24, 201614 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 4:27 PM CDT for 14 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2016, 4:27 PM CDT (21:27 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2016, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

Counties Cherokee County, OK, Creek County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205May 24, 4:40 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 250 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -349 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2092 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

158 
ACUS11 KWNS 242128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242127 
OKZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 242127Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL...WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO. WITH THESE
THREATS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED SOON.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CLUSTER ACROSS PAYNE/PAWNEE
COUNTIES OK IS INTERACTING WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE SIGNS OF WEAKENING WHILE IT APPEARS
TO BE ESTABLISHING A COLD POOL. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS IN A GENERAL SEWD DIRECTION TOWARDS E-CNTRL OK. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ATTEMPTS AT NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE SE NEAR OKEMAH. WITH THE LATEST TRENDS
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THESE THREATS...A NEW WATCH WILL BE
PROPOSED SOON.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35829739 36159757 36469716 35969497 35299474 34789517
            35619678 35829739

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 8:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 5 more	92 min
May 23, 11:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 7 more	83 min
May 23, 11:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beckham, Custer, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 4 more	5 hr
May 24, 1:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Major, Noble and 3 more	2 hr
May 24, 2:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward	119 min
May 24, 3:22 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Texas and 2 more	9 hr
May 24, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Coal, Creek, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer and 16 more	7 hr
May 24, 6:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills	91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.